Come Sunday, Thierry Neuville could be celebrating his first World Rally Championship title.
As championship leader, Neuville has the chance to put the crown out of reach of his rivals during the penultimate round of the season, the Central European Rally.
With a lead of 29 points over his nearest rival and 30 available from the final round in Japan, a strong weekend could be enough to seal the deal early.
His Hyundai team-mate Ott Tänak is that closest challenger, while the Toyota duo of Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans are also still in mathematical contention, 41 and 46 points respectively back from Neuville.
Therefore, the simple facts are that to clinch the title at CER, Neuville needs to outscore Tänak by two points across the weekend, and take no less than 10 points fewer than Ogier and 15 fewer than Evans.
Ott Tänak could be waving goodbye to any hopes of the 2024 world title by the end of this week
However, with the complex new points system introduced for 2024, there are almost endless possible permutations and combinations in which this could be achieved. Fear not, because DirtFish has made the calculations so that you don’t have to.
The only way that Neuville can guarantee himself the title at CER regardless of what his rivals do is to be leading at the end of Saturday (and finish the rally to bank those points, of course) and score at least 11 of the 12 additional points that are available across Super Sunday and the powerstage.
Still, even if it’s Tänak that is second to Neuville after Saturday, the Estonian must score at least two points more than his team-mate across Sunday if he is to prevent an early coronation.
If Neuville takes top points from Saturday, that will be enough to put the title beyond reach of Ogier and Evans regardless of their final day scores.
And if Tänak sits seventh or lower, the title could effectively be settled as early as Saturday evening – but again, Neuville will need to reach the final time control on Sunday before celebrations can begin. Even if he does, final-day retirements for other drivers could still complicate matters too by handing more Saturday points back to his rivals…
Not even a freshly opened pacenote book would have enough pages to cover every permutation of results that could end with Neuville as champion at CER
What if Neuville is not leading after Saturday? Well, if he’s second to Tänak, he could still take the title on Sunday if he finds five points more there than his team-mate. If he’s third with Tänak first, that becomes seven points. And if Neuville ends up outside the top five on Saturday points with Tänak on top, the fight rolls on to Japan irrespective of their Sunday tallies.
And what if Tänak hits trouble and isn’t running at the end of Saturday but then restarts on Sunday and takes the maximum 12 there? Neuville then needs a total of 14 points from the weekend. That could, for example, come from seventh overall plus second on both Super Sunday and the powerstage, or a fourth overall and fourth on Super Sunday without the need for any powerstage points. But if the door then opens for an Ogier maximum of 30 points, Neuville needs 20 to stay out of the Frenchman’s reach: how about fourth overall plus second on Sunday and in the powerstage?
As we said, the possibilities are almost endless. So stay tuned to DirtFish for the latest updates throughout the event – we’ll do the math for you.
