It’s crunch time in the World Rally Championship. Welcome to rally week, and the conclusion of the 2024 season.
It’s a year that’s delivered plenty of drama (as always) and already crowned champions in Junior WRC, WRC3, the Masters Cup and the teams’ title in WRC2.
But the big prizes are still up for grabs heading into Japan, and some hang tantalizingly in the balance.
Here’s a look at which titles are still to be decided, who is in contention, how they can be won and what our team of writers think is going to happen:
WRC drivers’ title
Neuville is in the driving seat to become drivers' champion
For the first time since 2021, the drivers’ championship fight has lasted the distance, with a champion to be crowned at the season finale.
Perhaps that’s a surprise, given the same driver – Thierry Neuville – has led the standings ever since the opening round in Monte Carlo.
His Hyundai team-mate Ott Tänak is the only one who can now stop him, but faces a tough job if he’s to do that with a 25-point deficit and just 30 points left to claim.
A full rundown of the permutations will be published on DirtFish later this week, but the key thing to know is the ball is very much in Thierry’s court.
Our predictions
David Evans: Nothing’s guaranteed with a mechanical sport like rallying, but Thierry Neuville becoming world champion is the nearest thing we have to a slam-dunk. Even if the Belgian’s i20 N Rally1 goes bang, Ott Tänak still needs a near-prefect rally to lift a second title.
In so many ways Neuville can only lose this weekend, reckons David Evans
In so many ways, Neuville can only lose this weekend. And the old Thierry might have done; the 2024 version won’t.
Alasdair Lindsay: There are only two scenarios in which Thierry Neuville fails to become world champion: either it’s a repeat of Carlos Sainz in 1998 with his car breaking down (though on the last day, not necessarily a few hundred meters from the finish) or mental fragility causes him to crash out on the last day. Either of those things happening on Friday or Saturday can be remedied on the Sunday.
The second is, on the evidence of his season to date, a complete non-factor. An unforced error in Sardinia which threatened to derail his title challenge was quickly put behind him and didn’t unravel into a run of poor form. When Sébastien Ogier so directly tried to get under his skin in Greece, Neuville thrived and it was Ogier who crashed out.
The only way Neuville realistically fails to win this is if his i20 N Rally1 lets him down on the final day. But if he can bank the six points he needs after the opening two days, he can complete the final day in road mode and it won’t matter an iota of difference.
Luke Barry: If I’m honest, I struggled to see past Thierry Neuville becoming this year’s world champion after Monte Carlo. That was a statement drive; a champion’s performance. The only thing that’s surprised me since is the fact he didn’t win it in Central Europe.
I’d love to throw a curveball in here and back Tänak, but even he knows his destiny is in his team-mate’s hands. However should Neuville fail to score in the first portion of the rally, his response on Sunday – when he suddenly he’ll need to be on the offensive – could be very interesting indeed.
WRC manufacturers’ title
Hyundai leads Toyota, but hasn't been able to wave goodbye to it
If the drivers’ contest is seen as something of a foregone conclusion, the manufacturers’ battle is anything but.
Yes, Hyundai has the advantage and just like Neuville has led the standings for most of the season, but Toyota still has control over the outcome.
Do what it did in Chile (score maximum points) and it will become manufacturers’ champion for the fourth time in a row regardless of what Hyundai does.
The Koreans do have those 15 points in hand though, which could prove decisive depending on how the rally plays out.
Our predictions
DE: Shorn of the shackles of a drivers’ title fight, Toyota will come together perfectly this week. Do we believe that? Actually, yes. Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans and Takamoto Katsuta will drive for the team and deliver the points needed to overturn Hyundai’s advantage.
Jari-Matti Latvala has told DirtFish the pressure is all on Hyundai. While I’m not sure all the pressure’s on the i20 N Rally1 crews, the carrot of a world title dangling directly in front of Neuville’s nose will surely temper his desire to push like mad to bag as many points in the makes’ race as possible. Conversely, the carrot hanging some distance from Tänak’s nose may well serve to have the Estonian risking more for rallying’s ultimate reward.
David Evans is backing Toyota to seal the manufacturers' prize
AL: Though unlikely at first glance, the mathematical reality is that Toyota can still steal the manufacturers’ crown away from Hyundai solely on its own results. A repeat of Chile, where it scored a 1-2 across all three points-scoring opportunities (Saturday, Sunday, powerstage) would guarantee the title. And a repeat is not out of the question.
Hyundai team boss Cyril Abiteboul has openly admitted that he expects Neuville to take it fairly easy in Japan – and he seems to be fine with that. It’ll be Ott Tänak and Andreas Mikkelsen needing to do the heavy lifting; Tänak will hold up his end of the bargain based on his form in Central Europe but Mikkelsen remained somewhat off the ultimate pace, even if last month’s rally was a step forward from his Monte and Croatia outings.
This opens the door for Toyota. Its key advantage is in the third driver department: Takamoto Katsuta’s benching in Chile seemed to have the desired effect on CER, where on the final day he was told to go all guns blazing and scored the maximum 12 points. And he won more stages than anyone else on last year’s Rally Japan.
Toyota needs a near-perfect rally to usurp Hyundai. But the ingredients are there to make it happen.
LB: I can’t quite believe I’m the only one picking Hyundai here.
I am totally onboard with the arguments for a Toyota steal, but scoring every single point that is possibly available is a massive task to achieve. There is a little wiggle room there for Toyota, but not much. And Hyundai is a formidable competitor that’s not about to let the chance of scoring a world title double for the very first time in its history – and on Toyota’s home soil no less – pass it by.
Luke Barry can see Toyota outscoring Hyundai, but not taking the title
Can I see Toyota outscoring Hyundai in Japan? Yes, because it needs more points than Hyundai does. Can I see that being enough to deny Hyundai the championship? Stranger things have indeed happened, but no.
WRC2 drivers’ title
The final title to be settled at this week’s Rally Japan is in WRC2, disputed between Sami Pajari and Oliver Solberg.
This one is the strangest of the fights given it’s effectively being staged on a points table rather than on the actual special stages.
Because of WRC2’s rules mandating a competitor only enters seven of the 13 events and carries scores forward from six of those seven, the championship leader – Oliver Solberg – is not competing in Japan.
Instead, he’ll be watching from behind the sofa as his rival Sami Pajari looks to claim the points required to move ahead of Solberg and become the 2024 champion.
Victory or second place would do just that for the Toyota driver.
Sami Pajari needs to finish at least second in Japan to take the title from Oliver Solberg
DE: This is a real toughie. Both drivers richly deserve the title this year, but I have a feeling it will be Oliver wearing the crown. Why? No idea. Am I just saying this to be slightly contradictory? Quite possibly.
They’re sitting at three wins each, so it’s really hard to call this one. But… check out the driver with the most stage wins and the driver who has led for the most stages in this year’s WRC2 campaign. It’s Solberg both times.
I know, I know, this isn’t about who we think should win, it’s about Sami Pajari’s chances of lifting the title on Sunday. It’s absolutely not a dead-cert. To name just two, Gus Greensmith’s on a mission to help his team-mate and Nikolay Gryazin’s arriving in good form.
This one’s reasonably wide open. No joke.
AL: All the cards are stacked in Pajari’s favor. He’s done Rally Japan before in WRC2, so has past experience to bank on. With Japan being a flyaway event, many European asphalt experts haven’t made the trip out – Nikolay Gryazin, Jan Solans and Gus Greensmith stand out as his only major competitors.
Solberg is by no means out of the equation, but has no control over his destiny
Of course, Solberg was in a similar situation heading to Chile – victory would guarantee the title and he failed to achieve it, losing two minutes after stopping to change a wheel. But puncture risk is generally low on Japan’s smooth asphalt, so it would take a mistake to suffer a similar fate. And even then, Emil Lindholm clipped a stone and punctured two years ago in Japan and still managed to clinch the WRC2 crown anyway.
Solberg may be leading the points standings but by all accounts, this title is Pajari’s to lose.
LB: If both Solberg and Pajari were in Japan and actually fighting it out for the win and the championship, this would be a much tougher call.
But because they aren’t, for me this is absolutely Pajari’s to lose.
Granted, as Alasdair has alluded to, we all kind of assumed Solberg would wrap up the championship in Chile with a victory there enough to do that. But the event got away from him.
Nothing therefore is guaranteed for Pajari, but I think he has the measure of his competition this week, so all being well should be able to win. And even if he doesn’t, don’t forget second place will still be enough.
