Unless you’re wearing the white and blue of M-Sport Ford this week, the stakes could not be higher with both World Rally Championship titles on the line. It’s now or never for the Toyota and Hyundai crews to strike gold.
For most (see all in Toyota’s case) it’s the manufacturers’ race that is occupying focus, but two of Hyundai’s pilots have the drivers’ championship to think about, too. Listen to Ott Tänak though, and it’s only Thierry Neuville who has any such concern.
Regardless, Rally Japan 2024 is set to be a cracker. Here’s how the Rally1 form drivers stack up ahead of this pivotal event.
#11 Thierry Neuville/Martijn Wydaeghe (Hyundai i20 N Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 3rd-4th-1st
Best Rally Japan result: 1st (2022)
With just 30 points left to claim and a 25-point cushion over his own team-mate, with Hyundai also having to think about the manufacturers’ championship, Thierry Neuville must be feeling quietly confident about his chance.
But as a five-time runner-up in the WRC, he knows better than anyone that nothing is done until the final time control. Resting on his laurels the Belgian will not be.
His odds look remarkably good, though. His form all season-long has been strong, and he’s gone well on Japan’s tight and twisty roads in the past with victory in 2022. A crash into a tree last year however proves how it all can change in the blink of an eye.
What’ll be interesting is which approach Neuville decides to take this week. Does he back off completely and just coast his i20 N Rally1 round to world title glory? Or keep the intensity, and therefore rhythm, up?
#8 Ott Tänak/Martin Järveoja (Hyundai i20 N Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 1st-3rd-3rd
Best Rally Japan result: 2nd (2022)
Ott Tänak is the WRC’s form driver at the moment with podiums in each of his last three starts, and of course victory at last month’s Central European Rally. How much closer could the drivers’ championship have been without the Estonian’s mid-season slump?
Tänak has already told the media that the championship is Thierry’s to lose, but whether he truly beleives that is another matter entirely. Is that simply a tactic to try and get in Neuville’s head and force an error?
Maybe, but realistically Tänak has vested interest in Neuville success this week as it would ensure Hyundai of a world title double for the first time in its history.
With that in mind, and absolutely nothing to lose in the drivers’ title race, Tänak’s approach this week is obvious. He’s in it to win it.
#33 Elfyn Evans/Scott Martin (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 2nd-2nd-18th
Best Rally Japan result: 1st (2023)
Elfyn Evans is another to have hit a decent bout of form as the season has come to an end with a pair of second places in Chile and CER, but the Toyota man is now out of the drivers’ title race which can only be seen as a disappointment.
He does have a crucial role to play in Japan though as Toyota attempts to dethrone current leader Hyundai and grab the manufacturers’ championship. As last year’s winner, Evans certainly knows what it takes to succeed on these unique roads.
His asphalt pace has generally been good this season, too. In CER he scored more points than anybody, in Croatia was a contender for victory alongside Neuville and Ogier before spinning on the final day.
The 2024 season may not have gone the way Evans would have liked, but he’s more than capable of ending it on a high.
#17 Sébastien Ogier/Vincent Landais (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: DNF-36th-16th
Best Rally Japan result: 2nd (2023)
Sébastien Ogier’s recent WRC form is poor for anybody’s standards, but particularly for an eight-time world champion. The results don’t reflect his speed of course, but three accidents in as many events is not what he nor Toyota envisaged when he was promoted to full-time status to hunt down Neuville.
Now Ogier’s focus is squarely on the championship he always said was his aim for 2024: the manufacturers’.
He’s a huge asset for Toyota to have, especially at this stage of the year when the chips are down. And he’s proven fast on both previous visits to Japan – a puncture in 2022 masking his true pace, while second to Evans last year was as close as you would get to an orchestrated result from Toyota.
An Ogier victory really would not be a surprise this week.
#16 Adrien Fourmaux/Alexandre Coria (Ford Puma Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 32nd-5th-21st
Best Rally Japan result: DNF (2023)
If this is to be the end of Adrien Fourmaux’s time at M-Sport Ford, he will want to end it on a high. And despite his lack of experience in Japan (no entry in 2022 and a practically unavoidable crash in 2023) he looks more than capable of doing just that.
The advantage Fourmaux has over all of his main rivals is he can drive free of any championship pressure. No worrying about permutations, no looking over his shoulder at what his team-mates are doing, he can just drive for the best result possible.
Don’t forget, lurking as the underdog has served Fourmaux incredibly well this season en route to four podiums.
You have to assume the target is another trophy to see out the season.
#18 Takamoto Katsuta/Aaron Johnston (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 4th-30th-41st
Best Rally Japan result: 3rd (2022)
If Rally Japan had been the event immediately after Takamoto Katsuta’s surprise (but justified) benching for Rally Chile, there wouldn’t have been many full of confidence that he would deliver the goods at home in Japan.
Now though, after what he produced in Central Europe, why can’t Katsuta grab anotehr podium at home and dare we say it, even a win?
Katsuta’s speed in Japan last year was sensational as he won 10 of the 22 stages to fight back to fifth after sliding into a tree on Friday’s notoriously treacherous Isegami’s Tunnel test.
This time around he could be a major factor in Toyota’s push for the manufacturers’ championship, but equally must quietly fancy scoring a huge result to close out what’s been a trying season.
#13 Grégoire Munster/Louis Louka (Ford Puma Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 5th-7th-DNF
Best Rally Japan result: 7th / 1st WRC2 (2022)
If Adrien Fourmaux is a dark horse, M-Sport team-mate Grégoire Munster is probably the forgotten horse this week. There’s next-to-no attention on the Luxembourger with the two world title fights going down to the wire.
That should suit Munster though, who can go about his business quietly and look to end his first full season in a Rally1 car strongly.
2024’s been a bit of a slow burner for the 25-year-old, but recent results have been encouraging. And Munster’s form in Japan has been mega – a breakthrough WRC2 win in 2022 driving a Hyundai before a battling performance for M-Sport against WRC2 champion Andreas Mikkelsen last year, which ended with Munster unfortuantely off the road on SS20.
#9 Andreas Mikkelsen/Torstein Eriksen (Hyundai i20 N Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 31st-6th-6th
Best Rally Japan result: 7th / 1st WRC2 (2023)
Facing an uncertain Rally1 future just a year on from winning a second WRC2 title and working his way back to the top, Andreas Mikkelsen can’t control his career direction. But he can absolutely control the direction of this year’s manufacturers’ championship.
With Neuville likely to be conservative with a drivers’ title on the line, Mikkelsen has been asked to step up and help Tänak fend off the Toyotas. The question is: can he?
Mikkelsen’s pace on asphalt was far from stunning in Monte Carlo and Croatia but he had a breakthrough at CER, with an improved feeling unlocked through a different setup to the i20. More mileage on the recent on Rallye La Nucía – Mediterráneo in Spain can only help that improved feeling grow.
What Mikkelsen absolutely cannot do though is repeat the sort of mistake he made in CER. He must do what he always did driving a Škoda Fabia RS Rally2: blend strong speed with dependability – but that’s a lot easier said than done.
