Another World Rally Championship week, another chance for Kalle Rovanperä to win his first world title.
Things didn’t exactly go as planned the first time around. Despite going quickest on the first Ypres Rally Belgium test, Rovanperä rolled on the second – and with that any hopes he had of clinching the title that weekend were gone.
To be fair, it was always a long shot. So despite his Belgian blunder, Rovanpera actually heads to the Acropolis with a better chance of securing the title than he did three weeks ago – although the chances of him securing it this weekend are far slimmer than they might have been had he not crashed in Ypres.
Heading into round 10 of 13 this weekend, Rovanperä has a 72-point advantage over the winner of the last two rounds, Ott Tänak. Toyota team-mate Elfyn Evans is 87 points adrift while Thierry Neuville sits 97 points shy of Rovanperä in the standings.
With 25 points on offer for a rally win and up to five bonus points available from the powerstage, Rovanperä needs to have a 90-point advantage over everyone else (with three rallies remaining) to make history in Greece.
But just like in Ypres, Rovanperä can’t go out there and simply win the title for himself – he’s reliant on his chief rival, Tänak, scoring 18 or more points fewer than him.
Tänak is realistically the only contender Rovanperä has to worry about. Evans can only stay in the mathematical reckoning if he manages to not drop any more than three points to Rovanperä, while Neuville can only keep his name in the pot if he outscores Rovanperä by a minimum of eight points.
With all that said, let’s look at the scenarios in which Rovanperä could emerge from a rally he won last year as the world champion this year.
If Rovanperä wins the rally and the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes fourth overall and scores no powerstage points
- Tänak finishes fifth overall and no higher than fourth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes sixth overall and is second on the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is second on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes fifth overall and no higher than fifth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes sixth overall and no higher than third on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes seventh overall and wins the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is third on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes fifth overall and scores no powerstage points
- Tänak finishes sixth overall and no higher than fourth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes seventh overall and second on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes eighth overall and wins the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is fourth on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes sixth overall and no higher than fifth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes seventh overall and third on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes eighth overall and wins the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is fifth on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes sixth overall and scores no powerstage points
- Tänak finishes seventh overall and no higher than fourth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes eighth overall and and no higher than second on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes ninth overall and wins the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and scores no powerstage points, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes seventh overall and fifth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes eighth overall and third on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes ninth overall and wins the powerstage
- Evans finishes second overall and no higher than second on the powerstage
If Rovanperä is second overall and wins the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes eighth overall and no higher than fifth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes ninth overall and third on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes 10th overall and second on the powerstage
- Evans finishes third overall and in any powerstage position
If Rovanperä is second overall and second on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes eighth overall and scores no powerstage points
- Tänak finishes ninth overall and is no higher than fourth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes 10th overall and third on the powerstage
- Evans finishes third overall and third on the powerstage
If Rovanperä is second overall and third on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes ninth overall and no higher than fifth on the powerstage
- Tänak finishes 10th overall and no higher than fourth on the powerstage
- Evans finishes third overall and no higher than fourth on the powerstage
- Neuville wins overall and finishes no higher than second on the powerstage
If Rovanperä is second overall and fourth on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes ninth overall and scores no powerstage points
- Tänak finishes 10th overall and no higher than fifth on the powerstage
- Evans finishes third overall and no higher than third on the powerstage
- Evans finishes fourth overall and wins the powerstage
- Neuville wins overall and finishes no higher than third on the powerstage
If Rovanperä is second overall and fifth on the powerstage, he wins the title if:
- Tänak finishes 10th overall and scores no powerstage points
- Evans finishes third overall and scores no powerstage points
- Evans finishes fourth overall and finishes no higher than second on the powerstage
- Neuville wins overall and finishes no higher than third on the powerstage
If Rovanperä is second overall and scores no powerstage points, he wins the title if:
- Tänak scores no points at all
- Evans finishes third overall and scores no powerstage points
- Evans finishes fourth and finishes no higher than third on the powerstage
- Evans finishes fifth and wins the powerstage
- Neuville wins overall and finishes no higher than fourth on the powerstage
So, in short, Rovanperä has to finish either first or second this weekend to stand any chance of putting the title out of everyone else’s reach. And then from there, it depends primarily on how Tänak fares as to whether it’s possible.
The magic numbers to remember are 18, three and eight. If Rovanperä scores 18 more points than Tänak, three more than Evans and stops Neuville from gaining more than eight points on him, then he will be crowned 2022 world champion on Sunday.
But absolutely make sure you save this article somewhere, as you never know when you might need it for some live permutations calculations! Rest assured, that’s what we’ll be doing at DirtFish HQ.
