Why Subaru’s number one is suddenly under title pressure

Halfway through 2024, you’d have got incredibly long odds on anything other than another Brandon Semenuk title win.

Even the return of Subaru Motorsports USA team-mate Travis Pastrana did nothing to destabilize the dominant Canadian, who after April’s Olympus Rally had won 12 American Rally Association National events on the bounce.

But after a second DNF in three starts, and a first win in three years for Pastrana at last weekend’s Ojibwe Forests Rally, suddenly things are looking far less rosy for Semenuk and co-driver Keaton Williams.

Ultimately their title destiny is still within their own control – but only just. Any more slip-ups from the #1 crew and Pastrana and co-driver Rhianon Gelsomino will be ready to pounce and steal an unlikely title from their grasp.

Here’s how:

Semenuk’s likely to miss LSPR

Current rules in the ARA allow each competing crew to drop one score towards their final championship total, but Semenuk may not get that chance as the final event clashes with Red Bull Rampage.

Team-mate Pastrana has also missed a rally this season as he underwent treatment for a damaged hip instead of competing in Olympus, so in that sense it’s all-square between the two WRX drivers.

Both were amazingly sidelined on the Oregon Trail Rally after hitting the same rock, but a similar issue for Semenuk, but not for Pastrana, last week has turned the championship on its head.

The Ojibwe effect

Ojibwe is Pastrana’s favorite event on the calendar – one he has now won eight times to extend his margin at the top of the roll of honor.

He had high hopes of challenging Semenuk in Minnesota but was once again outpaced by his team-mate until Semenuk found the rock “the size of a moon” protruding out of a bank and his rally was ruined.

That afforded Pastrana the opportunity to pounce, but Semenuk did respond by winning the end-of-event powerstage as Pastrana punctured – ruing a “half in-half out” approach as he weighed up whether it was worth going for broke or not.

Those extra powerstage points could prove crucial for Semenuk if he wants to secure his third straight ARA title.

It all comes down to Tennessee

The numbers definitely still favor Semenuk. He has four rally wins to Pastrana’s one and 70 stage wins to Pastrana’s 12. In cold, hard terms Pastrana has not beaten Semenuk in a straight fight where neither retired since 2021.

Certainly, without that second DNF that’s really weighed Semenuk down, there wouldn’t be a title battle to speak of. But equally Semenuk’s Ojibwe retirement only goes to prove how unpredictable rallying can be.

With Semenuk expected to be absent from LSPR and Pastrana therefore expected to scoop maximum points, it essentially all comes down to next month’s Overmountain Rally Tennessee.

Semenuk currently holds a 33-point lead over Pastrana, with a maximum of 27 available from each rally. Assuming Pastrana does go on and win LSPR, that puts Semenuk six points ahead.

Pastrana is therefore on the back foot, but a door that seemed sealed shut has now been left ajar.

“He would either have to win the event or beat me on the powerstage. I would have to win both,” Pastrana told DirtFish, “which looking at the stage times all year doesn’t look that promising.

“But I tell you what: if anyone can do it, it’s Rhi, it’s this team and definitely bottom of the ninth I seem to do the best so somehow we’re here, let’s go.

“I think Brandon is a couple of levels above where we are now and I don’t know… optimistically I think we can get there,” Pastrana added.

“We’re going to give it our best, but he’s a lot like [David] Higgins. Brandon doesn’t make a lot of mistakes – he’s really fast everywhere and he’s not very slow anywhere.

“We’ve got a lot of work to do but I’d like to think we’ve still got a shot at another one.”

Semenuk added: “As s****y as the [Ojibwe] rally was for us, it was best case scenario at the end of the day: we can still wrap this up in Tennessee which is the target.”

Johnson City, September 14-15. May the best man win.