Hayden Paddon stands on the brink of winning a second successive European Rally Championship title – but this one is going down to the wire.
2024 has been like a difficult second album for Paddon, but it still looks odds on to go platinum – or gold, at least.
In 2023, a season-opening win in Fafe was followed by a string of podiums that meant the title was secured without even needing to turn up to the final round. This year, it has been more about consistent point-scoring than about trophies – that was until a dominant win at Rali Ceredigion. Still that wasn’t quite enough to make it over the line, but the extra budget was found for the New Zealander to make the trip to this weekend’s decider at Rally Silesia in Poland.
That Paddon isn’t already champion owes at least as much to the breakthrough season of his main rival as it does to the challenges he’s faced himself. Mathieu Franceschi began the year with back-to-back second places in Hungary and Gran Canaria, and although he really struggled at first with the unfamiliar and unforgiving lanes of west Wales, he ended the weekend on the podium to force Paddon to a decider.
But what does Paddon need to do to become champion?
In principle, the ERC’s points system is more straightforward than that now used by the World Rally Championship. It offers 30 points to the winner with up to five more available in the powerstage.
Where the math gets a little more complicated is that it also features dropped scores, with each driver counting their best seven scores from the eight rounds.
Paddon’s consistency has been such that he has scored in every round so far, meaning that he’s currently due to discard the seven points he netted on Barum Czech Rally Zlín. This effectively reduces his margin over Franceschi from 27 to 20 points: the maximum number of points Paddon can end the year on is 159, while for Franceschi it’s 139.
If Franceschi wins in Poland and were to tie on points with Paddon, those early-season second places would win him the title on countback. So, the magic number for Paddon to hit to get out of reach for Franceschi before dropped scores is 147.
In other words, Paddon needs to score 16 points to guarantee himself the title.
Paddon is closing on back-to-back European crowns
A top-five finish overall would be enough for that, regardless of what happens in the powerstage. Or he could finish sixth overall and fifth in the powerstage, or seventh overall and third in the powerstage, or eighth overall and win the powerstage.
All this of course assumes that Franceschi wins the rally. If the Frenchman finishes second, he no longer has a match for Paddon’s victory in a tie-break situation, and his maximum score becomes 133. To equal that with dropped scores factored in, a top-nine finish overall would be enough for Paddon, or a top-12 plus extra powerstage points.
If Paddon scores seven points or less, his total across his best seven events will stay where it is now at 131. For Franceschi to beat that, he needs to score 28 points in Poland: either win the rally, or finish second overall and in the top two of the powerstage. Anything less and Paddon will be champion.
