Who is Paddon’s big rival for the ERC title?

The scores are currently 96 – 82.

The defending champion and former World Rally Championship ace vs a driver who hadn’t ever started a rally when his rival won his one and only WRC event in 2016.

No matter which metric you use, Hayden Paddon currently has the advantage in this year’s European Rally Championship race. But there’s just something about Mathieu Franceschi that means, even with that dramatic twist in Czechia, the race for 2024 glory is far from a foregone conclusion.

The last time DirtFish checked in with Franceschi, he’d just completed a monumental 2022 season in which he won 100% of the rallies he started. Promotion to the ERC followed in 2023 where he made a solid, if unspectacular, impression.

The Frenchman has lifted the bar this season – immediately claiming his first ERC stage win (in dominant fashion by over 11s) and podium on the first round in Hungary, and then going back-to-back with another second place in Gran Canaria that moved him to the top of the table.

“Last year I discovered everything, and because everything is so different from France the adaptation was rather slow,” Franeschi tells DirtFish.

“But during the off-season I worked a lot on myself, took a big mental step and I learned from experiences lived before. I think that is what explains our correct speed this year.”

In a season which, in rally wins terms, has been dominated by interlopers, Franceschi has emerged as the closest challenger to the ruthlessly consistent Paddon, and could still win the championship with a late season surge his asphalt form has proven he is absolutely capable of.

Unlike Paddon who has a few points to drop, Franceschi has no such worries and it’s to his credit that he’s still in the fight after two retirements – a crash on the final stage of Royal Rally of Scandinavia and a bizarre three punctures in two stages at Barum Rally Zlín; something that left the 25-year-old visibly distraught inside the car when he realized his fate.

“That’s a pill I will never swallow,” he admits.

“Retiring is always something very hard but it’s even worse when the reason for retirement is not in our control.

“We have no explanation for these three punctures of three new tires in 15km… that’s how it is.

“I come out of it with a tougher mind and I have to try and take the positives from it. Now it’s behind me and I want to look ahead.

“At the start of the season the objective was clearly a podium in the championship – we have been well placed since the start of the season even if since Sweden we have been dogged by bad luck.”

The “incomprehensible” punctures (a particular suckerpunch given Paddon’s problems earlier in the event) and losing fourth place in Rome in a tiebreak account for what Franceschi describes as “bad luck”, but his determination is resolute.

“It’s nothing that affects my motivation,” he declares. “Nothing will make us give up.

“Of course the championship is still possible – 14 points is a lot but there are two races left and more than ever we can see that nothing is decided until the race is over.

“So I believe in it, we believe in it with the team and without a doubt we will do our best at every opportunity.”

Whichever way the championship ultimately swings, fighting with Paddon has been a dream for Franceschi.

“The fight with Hayden is superb first of all,” he smiles, “because our relationship is based on respect, we get along very well.

“I have learnt a lot from him through his maturity and his way of managing races and the championship. We often chat together and he is very nice to me.

“I have always loved this guy before and now even more!”

That feeling is mutual, with Paddon describing Franceschi as “the complete package”.

“I think he’s got a lot of talent,” he tells DirtFish. “He hasn’t done a lot of international rallying. Last year was his first year outside of France so when you look at the step he’s made last year to this year, it’s basically a second per km [faster] and to make that sort of jump is pretty impressive – and not just on one rally, all the rallies: gravel, Tarmac.

“For me he seems to be the all-round package, and a nice guy as well he enjoys the rallying.

“For me the turning point for him was probably the last stage in Hungary where he just put the hammer to the metal and annihilated everyone,” Paddon adds.

“I think he’s got the talent to go all the way. Look at Mārtiņš Sesks for example who’s now there in the WRC. There’s a lot of young talent around the world, the problem is there’s not enough opportunities.

“For me he’s the complete package in the fact he’s good across a number of rallies, he’s got the right attitude so for me that’s quite impressive.”

Those words will mean a lot to Franceschi, but a European title would mean more. And this weekend’s Rali Ceredigion is a massive opportunity for Franceschi to seize the momentum.

On pure pace, he and his Škoda Fabia RS Rally2 have been a stronger package on Tarmac than Paddon and his Hyundai i20 N Rally2 – and with a smaller than usual ERC entry, on an event that even the ‘local experts’ don’t have loads of experience of given it’s a fairly new event with lots of brand-new stages, a win is certainly not unrealistic.

Not that Franceschi will be drawn on such talk.

“I never arrive at a race with the expectation of being the favorite,” he says. “I am a humble person, I approach each race with a lot of humility and always with the aim of getting the most out of it.

“But this rally is new, so I want to take advantage of it to gain experience and score points.”

The event begins on Friday evening with two runs of the Aberystwyth street stage before a further 12 stages held across Saturday and Sunday.