DirtFish’s predictions for the 2022 rallying year

The DirtFish team assess what they think might happen during this year's rallying season

GM2021001_176

An exciting new era of rallying is just about to dawn. The World Rally Championship is going hybrid, and this week is the first chapter of that new tale.

Naturally then there’s plenty of excitement within DirtFish’s offices about the prospect of this new age of competition in the WRC: which driver will cope the best, which team has designed the best car, will the hybrid units work as intended?

But there’s plenty more to get excited about outwith the WRC too as the American Rally Association continues its growth and the European Rally Championship heads in a new direction under the guidance of WRC Promoter.

So to capture the mood – and no doubt create an internal bragging match come the end of the season as to whose predictions were the most accurate – we asked our team of writers the same set of questions that we did in 2021 to see what they are anticipating ahead of a brand-new season of rallying.

Here’s what David Evans, Alasdair Lindsay, Luke Barry, Stephen Brunsdon, Rob Hansford and Jack Benyon had to say:

0B2A0335-min

Which WRC round are you looking forward to most this year and why?

DE: Rally Northern Ireland. I know, I know, I know, it’s not done yet. But could you imagine Thierry Neuville flying a Hyundai N Rally1 over Hamilton’s Folly? And what about the atmosphere around Belfast through rally week, we’re talking a cup final on a daily basis.

And then there’s the reward for the hard work for folk like Bobby Willis, Simon Larkin and Ian Paisley Jr, who have put everything into making this one work. The roads, the people and the place all deserve a round of the WRC. Think positive. We’re going.

Just how much I’m looking forward to Rally NI can be contextualised by a calendar including a trip to Rally New Zealand for the first time in a decade. New Zealand is one of the world’s finest places to drive a rally car (not to mention to watch rugby, go sailing and drink mind-bendingly good Sauvignon Blanc), but I’d put a pint of Guinness in The Crown, Belfast ahead of all of that.

AL: All of them. Cop-out answer, I know. But what I really hope to see is that every rally gets to go ahead as planned. It’s been two years of constant reshuffling and, like pretty much everyone else, I’m fed up of it.

2021MONZA_AUS_0095

Poor Rally Japan; it’s been geared up and ready to go for two years now and twice it’s been forced to call off. Monte, I suppose – these Rally1 regs have been long discussed but we’ll finally get to see them in action for the first time. But I’m not picky.

LB: It’s the boring and predictable answer, but how can’t it be the Monte Carlo Rally? In any year the Monte is special, but this year when we say nobody knows what to expect, we really do mean it.

With hybrid technology rolling into the WRC service park for the first time, the jeopardy is off the charts. No matter what happens, the result should give us at least some indication as to what’s to come later in the season. But there’s nothing to say the team that begins the year looking weakest could end it the strongest.

SB: While many justifiably are looking forward to this weekend’s Monte Carlo Rally, I’m going to have to go with my personal favorite: Rally Finland. The season opener is the dawn of the new hybrid era but seeing what the new Rally1 cars can do on the fastest roads on the calendar is a mouth-watering prospect.

WRC_2021_Rd.10_198

So much of the new generation of cars remains unknown but by the time the crews embark on their trip to Jyväskylä, the pecking order will be set, a championship narrative will have been established and the pressure of a good result on this rally will no doubt be through the roof.

RH: Normally, I’d say that I’m a huge fan of watching the drivers tackle the icy conditions in Sweden. The car control required to maintain just enough grip, whilst also extracting the maximum out of the car, never ceases to amaze me.

But this year especially, I’m really looking forward to the Monte Carlo Rally. Not only is the rally one of my favorites of the year, but this year’s event will also be the first time we get to see the new Rally1 cars compete in anger.

Monte Carlo will also be the first time we get an idea of what the competitive order will be like. The new regulations mean there’s potential for the pecking order to be shaken up, and on the demanding roads of Monte, it’s even more tantalizing.

JB: My heart says New Zealand as someone who grew up in the 1990s with Colin McRae’s spellbinding performances, but something tells me it will be a popular choice among Dirtfish contributors…

In which case, I’ll go for Croatia. It’ll be the first proper all-asphalt rally on the calendar for the new Rally1 cars and last year it caught out even the best drivers, before producing a three-way final-stage fight for the win. It offered a proper refreshing test – a new challenge of a slick surface and an epic blend of slow and twisty and fast and flowing roads. I really enjoyed that event last year.

5 Osian Pryce / Noel O'Sullivan - Volkswagen Polo GTI R5

You get to go to one non-WRC rally in the coming year. Which one and why?

DE: Mull. Never changes. Why would it? Wait for the fall, drive north to Glasgow and turn left. If it had to change, Italy’s Tuscan Rewind would be on the list, as would the Rally of Otago. And let’s not forget the Roger Albert Clark. I’ve still not done one of those properly.

In his brief for this feature, the editor stipulated it had to be a rally – the word rally was even in bold, it’s so important. If he hadn’t stipulated a rally, I would have gone for the Isle of Man TT. Those last couple of sentences (and this one) might not make it into this story!

AL: Being in the UK, I tend to get a bit of European tunnel vision when it comes to rallying. I couldn’t tell you who the title contenders are in NACAM off the top of my head. Or APRC for that matter – the last time I followed said series closely, Alister McRae was in a Proton. It’s been a while. So I’ll make an effort to pick something outside my own continent and broaden my horizons a bit: Rally Barbados.

Everything I’ve heard about it suggests it’s a very well organized event and pre-COVID it packed a huge entry list with a wide diversity of cars – not only Escort Mk2s ad infinitum. A much different (read: better) climate than the dull and dreich Scotland helps too.

Alas, plane tickets cost money. No Barbados for me. I’ll settle for Mull and an umbrella.

JB: I think the answer to this question will always be Barbados for me. Standards are high, both for the competition on the stages and the partying off them!

I don’t think I’ve been made to feel more welcome – in or out of motorsport – than when visiting this island, and the eclectic mix of cars and characters always make this the most fun event on the rally calendar.

If you’ve not been before, it’s a mega holiday with some strong rallying thrown in. It’s no holiday on the stages, as Elfyn Evans will tell you. The competition is very high for what is a national event.

Don’t underestimate the people there either. They’ll know more about the likes of Kenny McKinstry than you or I, and will probably offer you a rum while you discuss it, too.

2021YPRES_FD_220

LB: Ypres. OK, last year’s WRC encounter was a little bit disappointing but that doesn’t tarnish the reputation of this magical rally. By catering it to WRC regulations, it arguably lost some of its charm with a less condensed itinerary and the controversial trip to Spa Francorchamps.

There are plenty of other events I’d love to go to – all of the American Rally Association events look like great fun, Donegal is a future must, Mull was just as good as everyone says it is last year and my local event, the Jim Clark Rally, returns to the British Rally Championship for the first time in eight years – but Ypres is the one that’s always got away from me. I really need to settle that score.

SB: As a Scot who has never been to the Mull Rally, I feel somewhat ashamed to even call myself Scottish. The reasons for not attending the biggest rally in the country have not been through choice, but rather a constant clash of dates for as long as I can remember.

But it’s on the bucket list and unlike everything else on my bucket list, I’m going to experience it at some point. Scotland has had a well documented and difficult relationship with closed road rallying over the past decade, so the chance to embrace the night stages, the historic cars and, most importantly, the atmosphere among rally nuts is one I’m not going to pass up.

RH: This is a tough one. There are so many great rallies to choose from, but for me it would have to be the Targa Florio Rally.

It might not be the same event as it was back in the ‘60s or ‘70s when it was more of an endurance road race, but for me it’s still a special rally – one that I haven’t had the opportunity to attend, but one that I’d love to go to. Three days of watching some of the finest rally cars hurtle around the island of Sicily, what’s not to love?

Max McRae - Australian Rally Championship - Rally Queensland 2021.

Which up and coming driver should we look out for in 2022?

DE: Max McRae. He was super-impressive on his four-wheel drive debut down under last year and there’s some hope he might make it north of the equator this season. Regardless of whether COVID-19 restrictions allow him to make a WRC debut this year, big Al’s boy is one to watch.

And not just because he’s got DirtFish stickers on his car. They just make him even quicker.

AL: He’s not on the Monte Carlo entry list and he hasn’t even announced a 2022 WRC2 program yet, but I’m keeping my eye on Emil Lindholm’s name popping up on entry lists later in the year. Lindholm – whose mentor is his first cousin once-removed and two-time world champion Marcus Grönholm – is reaching a critical point in his journey towards the top level.

Last year was a big step, taking his first WRC3 victories in Finland and Spain and winning a first Finnish national title after a painful near-miss in 2020. And he won the Arctic Lapland Rally last weekend, so his title defense is off to a strong start.

Momentum is on Lindholm’s side and now is as good a time as any to take a run at the WRC2 title.

AUTO - ERC BARUM RALLY 2021

LB: Erik Cais. WRC2 is now an immensely competitive arena, and most of the drivers there are a proven quantity. But graduating from the ERC, Cais is something of a wildcard as a WRC newbie who has an international profile to build.

His sensational performance on Barum Rally Zlín, where he outdrove event legend Jan Kopecký before crashing on the final stage, did put him on the map but not necessarily for the right reasons. His third in WRC2 on last year’s Rally Spain was an overlooked result, and there could be plenty more of those in the locker if he doesn’t get too excited and push too hard on rallies unfamiliar to him.

But if Cais can make any impression in this year’s star-studded WRC2 field, it’ll bode very well for his future.

SB: Yohan Rossel certainly has the minerals to make it as a top-line rally driver. He’s got a full season of WRC2, driving the same Citroën C3 Rally2, ahead of him and it’ll be interesting to see how he can kick on.

Rossel12MON21cm319

Rossel’s got title-winning credentials throughout his career so far, which should stand him in good stead for this season too. Rallye Jeunes laureat in 2016, he won the French Tarmac Championship in 2019 before scooping the WRC3 crown by just 4.1 seconds on the final stage of the final round. He’s quick, he has the mettle, can he deliver? We’ll find out!

JB: By nature we should always be watching the junior champions, so Sami Pajari is an obvious choice for drivers to watch in 2022.

Being a young JWRC champion doesn’t guarantee success, so his next steps will be very important indeed.

Sami PAJARI,  Marko SALMINEN

Getting some experience on the Monte in Rally3 is a wise move, but beyond that we’re a bit in the dark as to whether he’ll use his JWRC prize for Rally2 or Rally3, and on what events it’ll be used as the Monte isn’t included. Either way, a lot will be expected from Finland’s next potential star.

RH: Oddly, my choice is a driver that currently has no firm plans for the year. Last year, Sami Pajari became the youngest driver to ever claim the Junior World Rally Championship crown at just 19 years old, picking up two rally victories at Estonia and Spain along the way.

Right now, Pajari doesn’t have any concrete plans for this season, but he does have an entry for Monte Carlo where he will be driving an M-Sport Poland prepared Fiesta Rally3. A decision on his future will be made after this rally, but I wouldn’t bet against him excelling on the roads of Monte and setting himself up for another stellar year.

AUTO - ERC BARUM RALLY 2021

What – or who – is going to be the biggest surprise in 2022?

DE: The Ford Fiesta Rally3. Admittedly you might have to look past the top 10, but I was fortunate enough to ride alongside Matthew Wilson on an early development run in this car at the back end of 2020. It was sensational.

And then the FIA gave it another millimeter on the restrictor and that means an extra 40-odd horsepower and 425Nm torque. Honestly, put this thing in the hands of somebody who knows what they’re doing this year and on a tight and twisty road, it’ll fly. And surprise more than a few folk.

If that doesn’t happen, Taka Katsuta will win a rally and Craig Breen will be world champion – but neither of those things are going to surprise you, are they?

JB: In a season with a new rules package, you’re setting yourself up to fail with this category and it feels like DirtFish’s commissioning editors are trying to make us look silly. How dare they! Luckily, I don’t need any help with that…

0B2A0006-min

I’ll make a simple prediction that many will ridicule me for, and tempts fate. But I think the new hybrid systems are just going to work.

Sure, there might be teething problems on the Monte, the first event. But I’ve got enough faith in the engineering teams behind these manufacturers that the ‘will it, won’t it?’ question marks over the hybrid working will be quickly cast aside, especially after a rally or two.

How’s that for the potential to look silly in a few days’ time?

AL: I’m going to make a prediction here that I know deep down is probably going to be wrong. But I don’t care. Call me a hopeless idealist but I want to believe that WRC2 is not going to be dominated by a bunch of ex-WRC factory drivers this year. I want the main support class champion to be a young rookie climbing up the ladder, not one that’s slipped down a rung and is trying to regain their footing.

Looking at the stack of talent in WRC2, it’s a tough ask, I don’t know which youngster is going to press on and win the Open title in this scenario. Maybe Marco Bulacia will find another gear this year. Perhaps a season of stability, rather than hopping from car to car, will do Nikolay Gryazin some good. Could Yohan Rossel build on his WRC3 success last year and take a run at the WRC2 trophy? Or maybe Luke’s hunch about Erik Cais is right on the money.

I’ll take any of the above. And those not mentioned too.

LB: It’s a response that might bury me in some corners of the internet, but Gus Greensmith.

After showing encouraging signs of improvement throughout 2021, Greensmith must hit the ground running in 2022. And I have a suspicion he’ll do just that and could well be an occasional podium threat. Why? M-Sport should be far more competitive this season than they were last, and Greensmith was every bit as quick as team-mate Adrien Fourmaux last season – and we all know how promising Fourmaux is looking.

GREENSMITH_WRC_monza2021_1656

I really hope Fourmaux can keep up his momentum too. With his name firmly on the map, expectation on his shoulders is much greater so he could face a difficult season if things start on the wrong foot.

RH: With a full season and two rally victories under his belt, I think it could be the year that Kalle Rovanperä marks himself out as a real title contender.

He showed blistering pace at times throughout 2021 and was in part hindered towards the end of the year by the fact he knew he had to keep out of the way of both Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans in their battle for the championship.

But with Ogier now out of the picture and with Rovanperä ever-growing in maturity despite his young age, it’s entirely possible that he could rise to the fore and mark his territory as Toyota’s leading driver, and potentially claim the WRC’s youngest champion record in the process.

WRC cars

What is 2022 going to mean to you?

DE: The end of what’s seemed like a never-ending stream of podcast pontification. Finally Rally1 cars will be here and we can genuinely understand what a hybrid-driven World Rally Championship will look like. I’m not with the naysayers who fixate on an additional 100 extra kilos, seeing it as ball and chain on the back of a once-great World Rally Car.

I’m with the 100kW which will launch 2022 off the line with 520bhp beneath Sébastien Ogier’s right foot. You’re right, he won’t have it forever, but the strategy and gamesmanship of when to regen and when to deploy only adds another fascinating twist to what’s going to be a cracker of a campaign.

AL: It’s a big year for me – my first as a staff writer here at DirtFish! But OK, enough selfishness. This is about the sport. And it’s in a weird place. Here we are, starting a new generation of rallying, and it’s already being written off as a failure before a single car has crossed the starting ramp in Monaco by some. Hybrid is pointless and Rally1 is doomed, so they say.

0B2A0019-min

I don’t know about that. But I’m no cheerleader either. The man who oversaw implementing his vision of rallying – Yves Matton – is suddenly gone amid a regime change the moment Rally1 comes to fruition. So while I’ll be looking at the action on the stages, there will be plenty to watch in the corridors of power too.

In Mohammed Ben Sulayem and Robert Reid we’ve got two through-and-through rally men as FIA president and deputy president sport – and there’s still a new rally chief to be appointed. A new generation of cars on the stages is several years away yet but there’s little doubt in my mind that some key decisions about what comes next will happen this year.

LB: Hopefully the chance to reflect on the dawning of a new era in a positive manner.

Whether you think Rally1 was the right way for the WRC to go or not, nobody is disputing the fact that alternative propulsion needed to be implemented if the WRC was serious about having any long-term relevance and future. As much as we are all secretly hoping for some mechanical drama on round one, we don’t want to see that by round 13 as that’s bad for everyone’s image. And after all, we want the drivers’ title to be won by the drivers, not their cars.

WRC cars

A brand new World Rally Champion would be a fitting way for the post Sébastien Ogier era to begin too – although should Ott Tänak win it again it would feel just as satisfying to witness given his struggles since switching teams.

SB: Like most people, a new era. The 2017-spec machines will certainly be missed from the WRC this year but the future presents an exciting new period for the championship. How teams handle the new cars and the in-stage boosts will be fascinating, as will the emergence of Kalle Rovanperä as a genuine title contender.

But most importantly, I hope 2022 is the beginning of something great for the WRC. And that means bringing in more manufacturers for the future. That won’t happen overnight, but key to convincing more brands to enter is a smooth first year with the new rulebook, strong leadership and a sustainable strategy which allows the championship to grow.

RH: 2022 is all about changing of the guard in more ways than one. The new Rally1 car is obviously going to be the main element and has a real chance to change the pecking order between the three manufacturers, but there’s also going to be a lot of change with the drivers.

0B2A0094-min

It’s the first time since 2013 that the current WRC champion isn’t competing full-time in the championship and it gives an opportunity for the whole field, bar Ott Tänak to claim their first title.

There’s uncertainty, there’s intrigue and there’s mystique. What a way to enter a new era and I have no doubt it will be as scintillating to follow as ever.

JB: Hopefully 2022 will mean getting back out to rallies and motorsport events again – semi-regularly at least – in the face of the coronavirus onslaught. Even if 2022 is as difficult as the two years that came before it, the new WRC rules cycle promises to offer an intriguing distraction at least, and the UK’s rallying scene always offers a vibrant if sometimes argumentative landscape.

I’m sure DirtFish’s regular contributors will be on hand to beam the latest news directly onto your electronic device of choice to keep you company. Best wishes and health to you and your families in 2022.

Words:David Evans, Alasdair Lindsay, Luke Barry, Stephen Brunsdon, Rob Hansford

Comments