World Rally Championship rallies are usually won by the driver who best masters the balance of calculating where to take risks and where to push flat out.
But, according to leading WRC drivers, skill will make little difference on this weekend’s Safari Rally Kenya.
Instead, luck will be the decisive factor.
This year marks the third time the current generation of drivers have taken on the Safari Rally – an event notorious for its punishing and car-breaking conditions.
The rally is far shorter than it ever used to be, but M-Sport’s Ott Tänak reckons 2023 will be the toughest instalment of the modern era.
“I would say it’s the worst we’ve had in the last couple of years,” Tänak told DirtFish.
“Friday is quite flat out, quite smooth, nothing too special. Saturday again is quite a disaster,” Tänak laughed.
“It’s a Safari spec, it’s a challenge – all the stages on Saturday, they are really rough and there is nothing about being flat out, and Sunday is a bit mixed. A few stages are really quite nice and then one which is really bad.
“This rally will not be about performance, you just need to get through. It’s definitely about finishing, first.”
Sébastien Ogier, who confessed this year’s event offers “a bit of everything”, therefore feels it could all come down to good (or bad) fortune.
“Some sections are a bit smoother than last year but some others looked very challenging,” Ogier said.
“So I think it’s still honestly a proper Safari where luck is going to be needed and a trouble-free weekend means a good result straight away I would say.”
Team-mate Elfyn Evans agreed.
“I mean it’s not easy to win Safari obviously,” he explained.
“You need to do a smart drive, a lot of things to go your way and I think you probably need a good bag full of luck to go with it to be honest.
“There’s a lot of work during the week, there’s some moments of stress I’m sure during the weekend. But ultimately yes I enjoy it.”
Hyundai’s Dani Sordo was another to feel luck could swing the outcome of the event.
“For sure everybody can win here and of course it’s all about no mistakes. But look two years before, I was driving normally, I take a stone, I broke the wheel. You don’t know [what can happen],” he said.
“You see last year how many things happen during the rally and also this year it looks like at some point there will be some rain during the stages.
“It will be like good luck for everybody.”
All of that means devising a strategy or a game plan is difficult considering how many unknowns lie ahead.
“It’s basically a bit of a lottery over here and yeah, it’s an endurance race. You have to get through,” Thierry Neuville explained.
“Anything can happen at any time, and yeah… we need to find a good approach. It’s very hard because you can push and you can get through without problems.”
The same goes from an engineering standpoint.
“We know specifically here in Safari, anything can happen to anyone at any time,” said Toyota technical director Tom Fowler.
“So trying to decide what’s going to happen in the rally beforehand is, at least in our opinion, not the way to go.”
Already after shakedown, two drivers have run into trouble as Takamoto Katsuta rolled his Toyota and Esapekka Lappi stopped on two separate occasions with a propshaft-related problem.
