World Rally Championship history is littered with examples of team-mates disputing the drivers’ title between themselves.
Take the very first season (1979) where Björn Waldegård and Hannu Mikkola faced off as Ford drivers, then more famous cases like Colin McRae and Carlos Sainz at Subaru and Sébastiens Loeb and Ogier at Citroën, or more recently Ogier vs Elfyn Evans at Toyota and then, to an extent, Evans vs Kalle Rovanperä too.
Thierry Neuville and Ott Tänak’s all-Hyundai showdown at this week’s Rally Japan is the latest of a long line of intra-team battles, but how much of a battle it really is depends on who you ask.
Neuville holds a 25-point lead over his team-mate with just 30 left to claim, giving him a clear and obvious advantage. But stranger things have indeed happened – just ask Carlos Sainz.
So while he still has a chance, Tänak cannot be scored out of the equation.
What Tänak must do
It would be a major upset if Tänak manages to steal the title from Neuville’s grasp, and that will only be possible if he scores at least 25 points in Japan.
If he fails to win the event, Tänak would require a 26-point score at minimum. Anything less would confirm Neuville as world champion regardless of his Rally Japan performance.
For Tänak to score 25 points in Japan and become champion, he must win the rally overall and place no lower than:
- Third in Saturday’s classification
- Sixth on Super Sunday
However, if he was as low as third on Saturday or sixth on Sunday, he would need to score maximum points from the powerstage and Saturday/Super Sunday respectively.
For Tänak to become champion without winning the rally, the same caveat applies as above applies but he can place no lower than:
- Second in Saturday’s classification
- Fifth on Super Sunday
- Fifth on the powerstage
Tänak must score at least 25 points and hope Neuville scores fewer than sixth to become 2024 champion
The simplest way of course would be for Tänak to top every segment of the event and score the full 30 points. But the unavoidable truth is there is no scenario in which Tänak can claim the championship for himself.
In every single case, the Estonian is reliant on Neuville slipping up to have any sort of chance.
What Neuville must do
The ball is very much in the Belgian’s court. Even if Tänak manages to hit the criteria above, Neuville can dash his hopes by simply scoring six points.
There are a variety of ways in which Neuville can do that, but the minimum he can do is place no lower than:
- Sixth in Saturday’s classification (as long as he doesn’t retire on Sunday)
- Second on Super Sunday
Neuville only needs to score six points across the weekend to confirm himself as world champion
Among that are a number of different combinations – such as winning the powerstage and registering one point from Super Sunday, meaning Neuville can retire from Saturday’s leg and still become champion purely on his Sunday performance.
But even if Neuville scores the required six or more points from Saturday, he cannot become champion before the rally concludes unless Tänak completely retires, as any points scored on Saturday are provisional until the end of the rally.
If Tänak retires from the weekend, Neuville will automatically be crowned World Rally champion for the very first time.
2024 points system
| Position | Saturday | Super Sunday | Powerstage |
| 1st | 18 points | 7 points | 5 points |
| 2nd | 15 points | 6 points | 4 points |
| 3rd | 13 points | 5 points | 3 points |
| 4th | 10 points | 4 points | 2 points |
| 5th | 8 points | 3 points | 1 point |
| 6th | 6 points | 2 points | – |
| 7th | 4 points | 1 point | – |
| 8th | 3 points | – | – |
| 9th | 2 points | – | – |
| 10th | 1 point | – | – |
