With a brand-new rally in front of the World Rally Championship’s finest for the second time this season, Rally Japan presents an equal opportunity for all to succeed.
But unlike 2022’s other fresh challenge, Rally Sweden, this isn’t a case of the rally simply moving base and offering up new stages. Rally Japan hasn’t been on the WRC calendar since 2010, and this year’s event isn’t just in a completely different place but on a completely different surface to what went before it.
Any previous Japanese form is therefore irrelevant this week – sorry Sébastien Ogier and Dani Sordo.
But there’s plenty we can still tell you about the shape each of the nine Rally1 drivers is in heading into round 13 of 13:
#1 Sébastien Ogier/Vincent Landais (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 1st-2nd-4th
The big change for the outgoing world champion this week is in the co-drivers’ seat, as Benjamin Veillas has been displaced by Vincent Landais.
It remains to be seen if Landais, Pierre-Louis Loubet’s regular navigator, will get the job on a full-time basis, but he’ll need to gel quickly with his new driver as Ogier is firmly among the favorites to win in Japan. How couldn’t he be after that performance in Spain?
Ogier has looked particularly confident with the Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 on asphalt, and has fine form on tight, twisty events like Japan (see his Monte Carlo and Monza Rally record).
He’d love nothing more than to be the one that delivers Toyota its first win on home soil. Ogier has won in Japan before though, taking the top step when the WRC last visited in 2010.
#6 Dani Sordo/Cándido Carrera (Hyundai i20 N Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 5th-3rd-3rd
Not a name we originally expected to see on the Rally Japan entry list, but the decimation of Hyundai’s current driver lineup freed up a spot for Sordo to compete this week.
And it’ll be a rare treat for him given it’s the first time he’s taken on a brand-new WRC rally since Monza in 2020.
Sordo’s mesmerizing podium run came to an end on home ground last time out in Spain, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t return to the rostrum in Japan.
Somebody is bound to be caught out by the fresh and daunting challenge, and Sordo has made pouncing on any errors his specialty.
#8 Ott Tänak/Martin Järveoja (Hyundai i20 N Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 4th-3rd-2nd
It’s time for the final dance. Once the Asahi Kougen powerstage is done, Tänak will never have to drive a Hyundai ever again.
It’ll sadden the 2019 world champion that his three-year tenure with the team just hasn’t brought the rewards he believed it would, but Tänak’s not the type of character who will reflect on that for too long.
As for how he’ll perform this week, it’s tricky to know. Although his results have progressively got worse of late – first in Ypres, second on the Acropolis, third in New Zealand and fourth in Spain – Tänak is still performing at the top of his game.
It’s hard to think of a better way to sign off than reminding Hyundai just what it’s missing when he leaves with a win.
#11 Thierry Neuville/Martijn Wydaeghe (Hyundai i20 N Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 2nd-4th-1st
There’s no such thing as a surface specialist in the WRC nowadays, but Thierry Neuville might be as close as they come. Although his sole victory this season was on gravel, Neuville’s always in the hunt on asphalt so must be expected to be a contender in Japan.
He’s already spoken about his desire to deny Toyota a victory on home soil, so it seems he has plenty of fuel to light his fire.
But above all else, with all the off-stage talk surrounding Hyundai’s driver dilemma and the role Neuville appears to have in that, he’d love nothing more than to steer the narrative back towards what he can do behind the wheel instead.
#18 Takamoto Katsuta/Aaron Johnston (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 7th-DNF-6th
All year, we’ve been talking about Takamoto Katsuta heading to his home event, hopefully filled with confidence so that he can push for a podium. The time has now come to see if he can do it.
Katsuta may hail from Japan but lives in Finland where Toyota’s WRC operation is based, so he doesn’t quite have the intimate knowledge of the stages it would be easy to assume that he has.
But he did compete on the Central Rally in 2019 with a Yaris WRC, and won. And he will have the passionate support of a nation willing him on at every turn.
On pure pace alone, Katsuta probably doesn’t start as a favorite for victory. But stranger things have happened.
#33 Elfyn Evans/Scott Martin (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 6th-DNF-DNF
Just one more rally, Elfyn, then it’s over.
2022 isn’t a season Evans will be keen to remember for a multitude of reasons, but he does have one last chance to create a silver lining for himself and grab a win. However, with confidence hardly at an all-time high, it’s far from a guarantee.
Rally Japan has already drawn comparisons with Corsica though – an event Evans has always excelled on – so the profile of the roads should suit last year’s vice champion.
It’ll all likely be won or lost on Friday morning. If Evans can start the rally with a setup he feels confident with, then he’ll absolutely be in the fight. If his struggles continue to prevail, he may quickly be left behind.
#42 Craig Breen/James Fulton (Ford Puma Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 9th-19th-5th
Another that will want to forget 2022 in a hurry, Breen already has one eye on the future this weekend with James Fulton stepping in to co-drive in the wake of Paul Nagle’s retirement.
Ensuring Fulton is up to speed and has bedded himself in well will therefore be top priority, but a good result to pick himself up after a trying season would hardly go amiss for Breen.
Not at the experience deficit that he has been at points this year, Breen should have all the tools he needs to deliver with the twisty nature of the stages expected to suit the Puma Rally1.
#44 Gus Greensmith/Jonas Andersson (Ford Puma Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: DNF-DNF-29th
Gus Greensmith has stated he wants to end the 2022 season on a high, but on a personal level that could well mean simply not crashing.
Mistakes have littered the back end of Greensmith’s campaign, so getting the car to the finish in one piece will need to be his main objective.
Do that, and who’s to say Greensmith won’t be a feature? The pace in Spain wasn’t particularly special but the Japanese stages are nothing like what Spain has to offer, so it’s like comparing apples and oranges.
And don’t forget, tight and twisty Tarmac yielded Greensmith’s first WRC stage win on the Monte.
#69 Kalle Rovanperä/Jonne Halttunen (Toyota GR Yaris Rally1)
Last 3 WRC results: 3rd-1st-15th
Rovanperä is competing simply for fun at the moment with his season objective of claiming the world championship long since secured.
But how he would dearly love to be the one that thanks Toyota for all of its support and hard work by giving it a win on home soil this week.
Rovanperä has good form when the scores are reset and drivers all head into a new event. He won the Acropolis last year, as well as New Zealand which was new to most drivers and Sweden from its new base this year, and was highest placed of the Ypres rookies in 2021 too.
That’s all logic to suggest he’s a strong contender to win this weekend, as is the fact he’s Kalle Rovanperä. The unspoken aspect so far though is road position. If it rains and the stages remain leafy, that could wreck Rovanperä’s chances.
