The championship decision Evans faces at Safari

Elfyn Evans is becoming good friends with first place at the moment in the World Rally Championship.

Winner of Rally Sweden, leading the championship and now leading Safari Rally Kenya with one day and five stages to go, Evans is on course for his first ever back-to-back WRC victories.

But perhaps more importantly, he’s on for yet another massive points haul to pull away from his rivals.

Before factoring in Super Sunday and powerstage points, Evans is set to end the weekend on 86 points. His next-closest rival? That would be Thierry Neuville on 44. The chasing pack is all very close together, but Evans is theoretically 42 points up the road after just three rallies.

All of this is of course provisional. As we’ve seen throughout the Safari, all drivers are just a moment away from disaster and the fortunes of their weekend changing on a dime.

So what does Evans do? Make hay when the sun shines and deny his rivals the Sunday bonus points they’re all craving, or check up and just drive through tomorrow safely to bank the rally win and the 25 points?

“Well I think on a rally like Kenya you have to weigh up, you know, the risk factor I guess,” Evans said.

“We still need to drive well tomorrow, that goes without saying, and see what we can pick up.”

Either Evans is undecided, or just not giving much away. But what do we think he should do?

David Evans: Bank what he has

Elfyn, a word, if you have a moment.

I’ve done the math: you can afford to lose 2.9 seconds on every one of the 41 miles that sit in wait tomorrow. Don’t be drawn into Super Sunday and don’t be stressing about putting all the power into the powerstage. Take the 25 you and Scotty have crafted and created across the last three days and be happy with them.

Ott Tänak’s second, but he’s going to have to put everything on the line to rip through Sunday for the full 10 points. If he does that, if the Hyundai’s perfect through the final day, he’ll pull two points back on you – but still be 33 behind.

Apologies if this seems like an overly conservative and borderline pessimistic outlook, but you have one mighty fine bird in the hand – ignore the fact there are two apparently just sitting there in the bush.

You know better than anybody how hard the Safari can bite and this is an event which will, doubtless, retain a voracious appetite right up until the final metre. You’ve driven the perfect rally so far, engaging head and heart in equal measure. Don’t let one rule the other tomorrow.

Take it steady. Bring it home. Twenty-three years on from Colin McRae and Nicky Grist, British and Welsh rallying’s history books are waiting for another page to be written.

Luke Barry: Give it a go

The cautious approach makes a lot of sense, especially at the Safari. As tempting and beneficial as bonus points are, the haul for winning the rally is better.

But being cautious is what Elfyn always used to do. This year we’ve seen he’s been happier attacking, being on the front foot and giving it a go than ever before – see that wild moment on the Monte Carlo powerstage, and that emphatic response to Takamoto Katsuta in Sweden.

And it’s working for him. Evans is in the form of his career and he’d be wise not to squander any opportunity while he has the upper hand.

I am not suggesting Sunday bonus points are worth risking it all for, but certainly on the first couple of stages, why not put himself in the mix? Drive fast but with a little margin, and see where Tänak, Neuville and Rovanperä are in relation.

That way he can make a decision as the day evolves; not immediately give up a chance to pounce if drama befalls the others who have less reason to back off.

We saw the effect Sundays had on last year’s championship. Elfyn himself reckons his early lead this year is flattered by the structure. He knows how important the points are, so knows he can’t afford to leave himself exposed.

But above all, he also knows he would be silly to get too greedy and prioritise the wrong prize.