It’s a season he started as world championship favorite, but so far has yet to deliver.
The expected flashes of speed have been there, but not achieved consistently enough to grab the results to match.
A change in regulations is perhaps a factor, but further rubbed in by the fact his team-mate has simply aced it up until now.
The world title the watching world had expected is not lost, but the fightback required needs to start now.
If you’re thinking we’re talking about Kalle Rovanperä’s start to the 2025 World Rally Championship season just now, you’re right.
Except I was actually writing about the opening throes of Elfyn Evans’ 2022.
Evans' 2022 season followed a remarkably similar pattern to the start of Rovanperä's 2025
It’s a description of events that, remarkably, fits either of the two seasons where one of the Toyotas flew, and the other flopped.
While three years ago it was Rovanperä in charge and Evans fumbling, it’s roles reversed in 2025. Evans holds a 57-point lead over his team-mate, while back in 2022 Rovanperä headed Evans by 59.
Is this purely coincidence, or is there synergy to be found in this bizarre, twisted repetition of history?
The similarities
Calling Rovanperä the outright pre-season favorite for the title this year wouldn’t quite be fair, but given his domination of the WRC from 2022-23, his full-time return in 2025 – after a half-year out in ’24 – was predicted by many to be the Finn picking up where he left off.
Cast our minds back to 2022, and the feeling was similar for Evans. Granted, he wasn’t a world champion like Rovanperä is, but with Sébastien Ogier making his full-time retirement from the WRC, the Welshman was seen as his natural successor given he had taken Ogier to a final round decider in both of the previous two seasons.
And both these situations unravelled when the technical regulations were tweaked.
In both 2022 and 2025, technical regualations were altered - albeit by far less extremely this year
Things were more extreme in 2022, as World Rally Cars were retired after 24 years of service and replaced by the space frame, hybrid-powered Rally1 cars.
This year, Rally1 cars have merely been fettled with the removal of the 100kW hybrid units, and an adjustment in weight and turbo restrictor to compensate.
But both of the in-form drivers are also strutting similar stuff.
Rovanperä looked utterly at ease in 2022 (aside from Thursday morning at the Monte where even Rally2 cars were beating him), in a similar vein to Evans who looks impervious to any challenge so far this term.
The differences
Although linked to a regulation tweak, the reason each of the weaker-performing Toyota driver is struggling is different.
For Evans, adapting to the hybrid and lack of center differential on the Rally1 car proved a challenge. Two of his early season offs in 2022 – in Monte Carlo and Sweden – could be explained by the car not behaving as he was used to in the past.
Evans struggled with handling characteristics, while Rovanperä has had to adapt to new tires
Rovanperä meanwhile has struggled to get on top of the new tires introduced for 2025, courtesy of a change in supplier from Pirelli to Hankook.
The characteristics of the rubber are very different, and the two-time champion has been caught out having to adapt his driving style to them.
What’s interesting to consider here is Rovanperä’s revelation at the end of 2024 that he felt managing the hybrid delivery was actually an advantage of his. In turn, it’s widely accepted that Evans has done better than most at getting on top of Hankook’s tire offering.
The beginning of Rovanperä’s campaign has not been as drastic as Evans’ in ’22 either.
He hasn’t made any major driving mistakes like Evans did three years ago, and his one retirement was far more unfortunate given it was a mechanical issue in Kenya – a problem that also afflicted Evans, although he did manage to fix it.
There was misfortune in Evans’ Sweden ’22 exit too, given he fell victim of his hybrid light flickering red to ‘unsafe’ and therefore was automatically bound to stop. But that was only prompted by a crash into a snowbank in the first place.
Conversely, Evans’ start to the season has been even better than Rovanperä’s was those years ago. He’s accumulated 0.6% less of the available points than Rovanperä did, but has done so in the era of Super Sunday as well as the powerstage.
So while Rovanperä led Thierry Neuville by 29 points after three rounds of 22, Evans currently leads the Belgian – now the reigning world champion – by 36.
Rovanperä vs Evans compared
| Evans | Rovanperä | |
| 2022 results | 21st – DNF – 5th | 4th – 1st – 1st |
| 2022 points | 17pts | 76pts |
| Gap | -59 | +59 |
| 2025 results | 2nd – 1st – 1st | 4th – 5th – DNF |
| 2025 points | 76pts | 31pts |
| Gap | +57 | -57 |
The effect
Rovanperä went on to win the 2022 title at a canter.
After round three, he added yet another victory to his tally in Portugal and the question very quickly became when, not if, he would lift the world title – which he eventually did in New Zealand with two rounds to spare.
Evans has been very cautious about his strong start to the year – and rightly so, given there’s also an extra round (14) this year compared to recent seasons. But the hallmarks are there – this has certainly been a good start.
What’ll likely decide it for Evans is perhaps less his own performances though, but those of his rivals.
It took Evans a year to drive through his problems - will it be the same for Rovanperä?
Nobody was able to challenge Rovanperä in 2022 until it was too late – Hyundai’s poor start to Rally1 life meaning Ott Tänak’s renaissance over the summer was a hypothetical threat rather than a tangible one.
That year it took Evans effectively a season to drive around his limitation – will it take Rovanperä the same in 2025?
So far this year nobody has been able to get on top of Evans. But there are 11 rounds left – starting with next week’s Rally Islas Canarias – for his rivals to reply.
The die may be molded, but it’s not yet cast.
