What impact will Ogier’s absence have on Toyota?

Ogier's departure from full-time WRC competition leaves a big hole to fill – but it's not all doom and gloom

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Jari-Matti Latvala is a pragmatic character. Throughout his driving career, he was always brutally honest about his own abilities – particularly when he made mistakes. And that character trait has extended into his new World Rally Championship venture as Toyota’s team principal.

So when David Evans and Colin Clark sat down with him on the final morning of last month’s Monte Carlo Rally, the answers they got were typically considered, insightful and not spun with an agenda that would please Toyota’s PR department.

That’s vitally important to remember when considering the delivery, and substance, of Latvala’s response when asked, quite simply, if the team would miss Sébastien Ogier in Sweden.

His words came before the puncture that ultimately cost Ogier victory to Sébastien Loeb, but the fact that his now part-time driver was still leading the way in the Toyota camp wasn’t lost on Latvala.

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“You know these guys they are exceptional in this sport, Loeb and Ogier,” Latvala offered, “and you know how strong an asset he is so for sure he is bringing so many good points for the team.

“Definitely you miss a guy like this.”

It wasn’t a huge surprise for Ogier – the record-winner of the Monte – to be leading the way last month given he’d just won the Monza Rally and his eighth world title two months earlier.

But on that Sunday morning, with Elfyn Evans broadly out of the running following a mistake on Saturday and Kalle Rovanperä down in fourth, it was obvious that Ogier would still represent the team’s best hope for world championship success if he was sticking around.

In a way it was like Toyota was being teased. Ogier was showing his colleagues just what they will be missing through the majority of 2022. He has an aura around him and such an assurance behind the wheel. He calms everyone down as with him in the car and the team, everyone knows things will be OK.

“You trust him,” said Latvala.

“I saw that already at the Volkswagen time [as his team-mate between 2013-16]. When Ogier won the second championship, I could see that basically then inside the team, people had a trust ‘OK Ogier can win things. He will win, he will bring the championship. He will win the championship.’

“Of course, they were happy if me or Andreas [Mikkelsen] won but expectations were always that he can do it.”

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He is very analytical and he understands the car a lot, so I'm quite confident that Elfyn is able to help the car to make the car good Jari-Matti Latvala

It would be unfair to suggest that Ogier represents Toyota’s only hope of winning, but any organization that loses one of its biggest assets is always going to be left more vulnerable than it was before.

So Latvala – and Toyota – will of course miss Ogier, but make no mistake: that won’t prevent the team from achieving its objectives of both world titles.

Latvala’s response when asked if Ogier would be utilized for testing the GR Yaris Rally1 for rallies he won’t be in 2022 so that the team can glean all his experience was telling.

“Elfyn is very good with development,” he said. “He is very analytical and he understands the car a lot, so I’m quite confident that Elfyn is able to help the car to make the car good.”

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And with regards to Ogier’s absence from Rally Sweden, he added: “At the same time I hope we can do a good performance with Esapekka [Lappi] and then it’s on the other hand when he [Ogier]’s going away from the sport he’s opening the door for the others.”

It’s hardly doom and gloom within the Toyota fold. In fact, talking about Sweden in particular, it can strongly be argued that the team is actually in a better position without Ogier next week.

Ogier is a three-time winner of the rally, with more Swedish victories than any other non-Scandinavian driver. But he’s not been on the podium there since 2017, and if he was competing this year, he would be sweeping the road clear for all of his rivals and thus sacrificing some performance.

Rovanperä will assume that role in Ogier’s absence next Friday, but Toyota’s other runners are perfectly placed to pounce. Evans will be sixth onto the stages – one spot behind Toyota Next Generation driver Takamoto Katsuta – while Lappi will be all the way back in ninth in the running order.

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If Ogier was present, Lappi wouldn’t be and Toyota would therefore be without that ace card. That’s a hand it can hold as the year progresses too. With Lappi and Ogier sharing a seat, one of them is likely to not be too high up the championship standings at various phases of the season.

And although Ogier’s the driver in recent years that’s clearly proved most adept at winning titles, don’t forget that Evans has been the driver that’s run him closest in both of the past two seasons. Rovanperä’s hardly considered an also-ran either, is he?

Toyota might not want to but always knew that this year it would need to get accustomed to life without Ogier. Really, when you consider all of the above factors, there’s no better place for that process to start than in Umeå next week.

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