It all comes down to this. Kajetan Kajetanowicz vs Emil Lindholm. Winner takes all.
Or the reigning champion wins instead. Andreas Mikkelsen may not be in Japan, but if neither Kajetanowicz nor Lindholm score well this week, he could retain his WRC2 crown.
Whatever your opinion on the tactics and logistics of this year’s fight for the title, you certainly can’t say it’s been dull.
After two controlled and assured wins on the Monte and Sweden, Mikkelsen looked like a guaranteed champion. But two consecutive engine-related DNFs in Portugal and Sardinia (while leading) opened the door to the chasing pack.
Kajetanowicz emerged as Mikkelsen’s biggest threat once it became clear he’d devised a masterplan to compete on the events Mikkelsen wasn’t contesting, and would thus stand to gain points against his rival when he otherwise mightn’t have done.
Mikkelsen’s Toksport Škoda team-mate Lindholm was somewhat late to the party. The overall WRC2 title was never his season-long goal, but once claiming the Junior title by just starting Rally Spain after Chris Ingram’s tumble down a bank in Greece that left him unable to compete in Spain, Lindholm’s focus shifted.
Finding the budget to make the trip to Japan and create an on-stage battle this weekend, Lindholm is arguably the favorite to become 2022 WRC2 champion.
But it’s far from a foregone conclusion. Here’s what each contender has to do in Japan to win:
Kajetan Kajetanowicz
Points: 104
Current drop: 8
You might think that Lindholm suddenly factoring into what looked to be a one-on-one duel with Mikkelsen may frustrate Kajetanowicz, but we put that exact thought to him in Spain and he grinned: “Bring it on! I like competition.”
Sixth place to Lindholm’s fourth last time out didn’t do his championship chances much good though. And that could be a worry for Japan given the entry is stronger than many anticipated.
Kajetanowicz absolutely knows how to win a championship though – his three European titles on the spin are testament to that. So when it comes to crunch time, he should be adept at dealing with the pressure.
But with just one win to his name, and on an event like Safari Rally Kenya where speed isn’t king, longevity rather than blistering pace will be Kajetanowicz’s card to play.
Minimum to win: Finish fourth with at least two powerstage points, beat Lindholm
Emil Lindholm
Points: 104
Current drop: 3
Theoretically tied with Kajetanowicz in the points table, in reality Lindholm is marginally ahead given his dropped score is far smaller than his rival’s.
On pace alone, Lindholm should be more than capable of getting the job done in Aichi. The only time Kajetanowicz got the better of him was in Croatia, and Lindholm’s won twice this year – slightly fortuitously in Finland where Teemu Suninen won but was disqualified but in dominant fashion on the Acropolis.
His Achilles heel could prove to be letting the pressure get to him. Lindholm has fought for, and won, Finnish titles before but Rally Japan is by far the biggest of his career. He’ll need to block all that out and just drive like he knows he can and then hope the rest falls into place.
Lindholm’s secret weapon could be his team-mates. Sami Pajari, Bruno Bulacia and Mauro Miele are all in the Toksport fold this weekend and could potentially do Lindholm a favor if it was required.
Minimum to win: Finish sixth with at least one powerstage point, beat Kajetanowicz
Andreas Mikkelsen
Points: 109
Drop: 0
The absentee who’s powerless to affect his own score, Mikkelsen isn’t in control of his own destiny. But that’s nothing new – it’s a situation he’s been in since September’s Acropolis Rally Greece.
Winner of the most events this season (three), Mikkelsen would have been much harder to catch had he not smacked the concrete barriers on the Olympic Stadium superspecial – but mostly he is blameless for the position he finds himself in.
It’s not impossible for Mikkelsen to become a double WRC2 champion, but he’s reliant on his rivals dropping the ball on Rally Japan for it to become a reality.
But even if it doesn’t come to pass, Mikkelsen has still achieved his season target of being the Rally2 benchmark, even if it doesn’t earn him the step back up to Rally1 that he’s been pushing for.
To win: Lindholm finishes outside top six, Kajetanowicz outside top four
