The inevitable could become reality this week. This Sunday, Kalle Rovanperä could become the 2022 World Rally champion.
Ypres Rally Belgium, round nine of this year’s World Rally Championship, provides Rovanperä with his first opportunity to transform that writing on the wall into permanent ink.
But, with four rounds still to run after Belgium, the 21-year-old would need a lot of circumstances to work in his favor to walk away from Ypres as the youngest ever World Rally champion.
Rovanperä currently has 198 points on the board – 94 more than closest challenger Ott Tänak.
| Position | Driver | Points | Deficit |
| 1 | Kalle Rovanperä | 198 | |
| 2 | Ott Tänak | 104 | 94 |
| 3 | Thierry Neuville | 103 | 95 |
| 4 | Elfyn Evans | 94 | 104 |
| 5 | Takamoto Katsuta | 81 | 117 |
| 6 | Craig Breen | 64 | 134 |
There is no scenario in which Rovanperä alone can guarantee himself the world championship in Ypres. He is reliant on Tänak and Thierry Neuville having poor showings if he’s to get the job done with four rounds to go.
With 30 points available per WRC round, Rovanperä’s score cannot be matched if he holds a 121-point lead after Ypres. In fact, a lead of 120 points over anyone except Tänak would be enough to secure the title at this early stage, as Rovanperä’s five wins mean only Tänak could beat him on countback.
Rovanperä would need to score at least 27 points, which would mean winning the rally and grabbing at least two points from the powerstage – and the title would then only be possible if Tänak registered zero points.
If Rovanperä won the rally and the powerstage, Tänak would need to score at least four points to deny the Toyota driver the title this weekend.
It’s a similar story for Neuville, who has just one point fewer than his team-mate but – crucially – has yet to win a rally this year. To take the title this weekend, Rovanperä would need to score 25 points more than Neuville and again that still banks on Tänak scoring next-to-nothing.
Considering everybody’s maximum total for the season, Rovanperä only needs to score 57 points over the next five rallies to guarantee himself the title. But the situation is so far out of his control in Ypres it’s a long shot for him to claim it this early.
However, these are the scenarios in which Rovanperä can be crowned World Rally Champion.
If Rovanperä wins the rally and the powerstage:
Rovanperä will clinch the title if Tänak…
– finishes ninth overall and fifth on the powerstage
– finishes 10th overall and fourth on the powerstage
– finishes outside the top 10 and third on the powerstage
And if Neuville…
– finishes eighth overall and fifth on the powerstage
– finishes ninth overall and third on the powerstage
– finishes 10th overall and second on the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is second on the powerstage:
Rovanperä will clinch the title if Tänak…
– finishes ninth overall and score no powerstage points
– finishes 10th overall and fifth on the powerstage
– finishes outside the top 10 and fourth on the powerstage
And if Neuville…
– finishes eighth overall and no powerstage points
– finishes ninth overall and fourth on the powerstage
– finish 10th overall and third on the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is third on the powerstage:
Rovanperä will clinch the title if Tänak…
– finishes 10th overall and score no powerstage points
– finishes outside the top 10 and fifth on the powerstage
And if Neuville…
– finishes ninth overall and fifth on the powerstage
– finishes 10th overall and fourth on the powerstage
If Rovanperä wins the rally and is fourth on the powerstage:
Rovanperä will clinch the title if Tänak…
– scores no points at all
And if Neuville…
– finishes ninth overall and score no powerstage points
– finishes 10th overall and fifth on the powerstage
– finishes outside the top 10 and fourth on the powerstage
Instead, what’s more likely than Rovanperä claiming the title is the list of mathematical contenders slimming down.
As it stands, Rovanperä, Tänak, Neuville, Elfyn Evans, Takamoto Katsuta and Craig Breen can all win this year’s championship. But for Breen in particular, that mathematical possibility looks likely to evaporate.
To keep himself in the hunt, Breen needs to outscore Rovanperä by 15 points in Belgium – although that might not be so preposterous given Breen’s strong Ypres form in the past.
Katsuta has 17 more points than Breen, and he can therefore afford to score fewer points than Rovanperä this weekend and theoretically stay in the race – but only if it’s two fewer points.
Evans – who was many pundits’ and fans’ favorite for the title this year – risks being ruled out too if he drops 16 or more points to his team-mate.
Ironically then, everybody except Breen is in control of their championship destiny in Ypres other than the driver who looks set to win it.
But the question of when, not if, Rovanperä realizes his dream has become that bit more pertinent this week.
