We’ve reached a key moment that’s been months in the making – the day Kalle Rovanperä can wrap up a maiden World Rally Championship title with his own two hands, rather than needing results to go his way to wrap up the trophy early.
As the WRC field heads into the final day of Rally New Zealand, Rovanperä is where he needs to be – leading. Ott Tänak, the only driver who could realistically have kept the title race running to Spain, is third at the time of writing. That would be enough for Rovanperä to clinch a maiden title but a charge to second by Tänak would mean breaking the calculator out.
Rovanperä’s margin had shrunk from 94 to 53 points after two wins on the bounce for Tänak – but this time, there’s one potential scenario where the lead Toyota can clinch the crown regardless of what everyone else does.
Broadly speaking, Rovanperä has to outscore Tänak by eight points to seal the title, unless he wins in New Zealand – then the magic number would be seven. Why? Tänak won’t be able to match Rovanperä’s number of wins (six), thus ensuring any dead heat at season’s end would go the younger driver’s way in a tiebreaker.
There is one result, and one result only, that guarantees Rovanperä the title regardless of what anyone else does in New Zealand – winning both the rally and the powerstage. Anything short of a perfect score of 30 and Tänak has the power to keep the battle rolling on to Spain, so long as he isn’t too far behind.
But what are the other combinations of results where Rovanperä can clinch the crown? We’ve listed every single one of them for your handy reference – all 107 of them:
What if Rovanperä wins the rally?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä wins and finishes first on the powerstage:
Rovanperä is champion regardless of where other drivers finish
Rovanperä wins and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is second overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä wins and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is second overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä wins and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak is second overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä wins and finishes fifth on the powerstage:
Tänak is second overall and scores no powerstage points
Rovanperä wins and does not score powerstage points:
Tänak is second overall and scores no powerstage points
What if Rovanperä finishes second?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is second overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is third overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is fourth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is second overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is fourth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is fifth overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is second overall and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is fourth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is fifth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is second overall and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak is fourth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is fifth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is second overall and finishes fifth on the powerstage:
Tänak is fifth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is sixth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is second overall and does not score powerstage points:
Tänak is fifth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is sixth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is seventh overall and second or lower on the powerstage
What if Rovanperä finishes third?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is third overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is fourth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is fifth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is third overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is fifth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is sixth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is third overall and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is fifth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is sixth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is seventh overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is third overall and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak is sixth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is seventh overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is third overall and finishes fifth on the powerstage:
Tänak is sixth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is seventh overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is eighth overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is third overall and does not score powerstage points:
Tänak is seventh overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is eighth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
What if Rovanperä finishes fourth?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is fourth overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is sixth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is seventh overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fourth overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is sixth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is seventh overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is eighth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fourth overall and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is seventh overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is eighth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fourth overall and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak is seventh overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is eighth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is ninth overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fourth overall and finishes fifth on the powerstage:
Tänak is eighth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is ninth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fourth overall and does not score powerstage points:
Tänak is eighth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is ninth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes second or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and second or lower on the powerstage
What if Rovanperä finishes fifth?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is fifth overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is seventh overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is eighth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fifth overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is seventh overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is eighth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is ninth overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fifth overall and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is eighth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is ninth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fifth overall and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak is eighth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is ninth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes second or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fifth overall and finishes fifth on the powerstage:
Tänak is ninth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is 10th overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes third or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is fifth overall and does not score powerstage points:
Tänak is ninth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is 10th overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes fourth or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
What if Rovanperä finishes sixth?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is sixth overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is eighth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is ninth overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is sixth overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is eighth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is ninth overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes second or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and second or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is sixth overall and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is ninth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes third or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is sixth overall and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak is ninth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is 10th overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes fourth or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is sixth overall and finishes fifth on the powerstage:
Tänak is 10th overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes fifth or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is sixth overall and does not score powerstage points:
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and scores no powerstage points
Neuville first overall and scores no powerstage points
What if Rovanperä finishes seventh?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is seventh overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is ninth overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak is 10th overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes third or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and third or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is eighth overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak is ninth overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak is 10th overall and fifth or lower on the powerstage
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes fourth or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is seventh overall and finishes third on the powerstage:
Tänak is 10th overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes fifth or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is seventh overall and finishes fourth on the powerstage:
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and scores no powerstage points
Neuville first overall and scores no powerstage points
What if Rovanperä finishes eighth?
If the following combinations of result occur, Rovanperä wins the title in New Zealand.
Rovanperä is eighth overall and finishes first on the powerstage:
Tänak is 10th overall and scores no powerstage points
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and finishes fifth or lower on the powerstage
Neuville first overall and fourth or lower on the powerstage
Rovanperä is seventh overall and finishes second on the powerstage:
Tänak finishes outside the top 10 and scores no powerstage points
Neuville first overall and scores no powerstage points
