Latvala would attack Rovanperä if he was Evans

So, here we go again. Three times this season Elfyn Evans has gone up against Kalle Rovanperä for victory: Sweden, Portugal, and Kenya.

All three times, Evans was defeated. In Sweden, he chucked it into a snowbank – twice – trying to keep up. In Portugal, he was simply outgunned. In Kenya, he lost a handful of seconds with a puncture – all the opportunity the championship leader needed to pounce and disappear up the road.

In Estonia, the duel has resurfaced for a fourth time. And once more, Rovanperä has come from behind and swooped into the lead while running first on the road.

Enough is enough, surely. It’s time for Evans to put his foot down and get the pendulum swinging back in his direction.

Early on in Estonia, he’d been doing exactly that with five stage wins in a row. He looked unassailable, like his winless streak going back to Finland last year might finally come to an end.

And then Vastsemõisa 2 happened. A 22.6-second swing to the young hotshot and the lead gone in one fell swoop.

Conditions helped, of course. Rovanperä conceded as much. But he’d also hinted at the reason why he’d turned the tables so quickly.

“I knew that the weather should only get worse and it was already really tricky for me the first few corners, so I knew that if you don’t push here you can lose some time so I decided to push the whole stage,” he told DirtFish.

In those same first few corners, Evans nearly departed the stage for some greenery. He backed off. He paid the price.

Team principal Jari-Matti Latvala recognized the pattern. He’d seen this before. Not too long ago, either.

“That was a bit like in Kenya, he also understood the situation,” Latvala said of Rovanperä. “It’s a bit like Sébastien Loeb did in the past.”

Indeed, it was like Kenya. When the rain came lashing down and turned Elmenteita into a mudbath, it was the championship leader that bossed the field. He gained a crucial 11.3s on Evans and put the lead out of reach.

Evans must be experiencing a sense of déjà vu.

Toyota has another 1-2 in the offing, as Ott Tänak dropped off the back of the lead fight on the rainy afternoon pass. But, as always, there are no team orders at Toyota.

Evans has yet to best his younger colleague in a straight fight this year. He needs that first win. And Latvala has given him the green light to put it all on the line.

In his 209 WRC starts, Latvala has seen it all. Especially at Volkswagen. Especially when he needed a confidence-boosting victory over the dominant Sébastien Ogier.

He knows what he’d be doing in Elfyn’s position. And he’s going to let him do it – consequences be damned.

“Normally, if I would be in that situation, for sure I would be attacking,” said Latvala.

“I think Elfyn wants to have that victory very much. Kalle is in a position that he knows also that he doesn’t need to win because he needs to follow only what Thierry [Neuville, second in the championship standings] is doing. So Kalle doesn’t need to take those risks.

“So that gives a little bit the opportunity for Elfyn to try. In that position, I would push in the morning.”

Conditions went against Evans on the afternoon pass. That ill-timed rain derailed a flawless morning. But Elfyn knows the pace is there. That he can still make this happen. Latvala made a point to remind him.

“Elfyn, I said to him this morning, for me he’s driving really, really well. He’s driving really stable, really committed and confident driving. He has been doing a really good job. A perfect job.

“Unfortunately he was a bit of a victim of the conditions where he lost time. But we don’t have team orders, they have the open game tomorrow. Still, with Elfyn, he can be happy with the day and anything can still happen.

“Tomorrow the conditions can play a role. It’s just that if the conditions are playing a role, just find that place where he needs to attack.”

Rovanperä knew that Vastsemõisa was the place to attack on Friday once the rain began to fall. But on Saturday, there’s plenty of choice on offer for a counterstrike: Elva, Mäeküla, Otepää, Neeruti.

We don’t know which Evans will pick – but we do know he’s going to try.

“We can re-find out form from this morning hopefully and pick it up from there tomorrow morning,” was the typically direct statement from Evans.

So, here we go again.