Thierry Neuville is on the cusp of winning rallying’s biggest prize this week. But the main World Rally Championship trophy isn’t the only one still up for grabs in 2024 – the second-tier WRC2 crown is also waiting for a new winner.
The WRC2 title race currently exists in a bizarre transient state. The points standings once Central European Rally is finished might shift again before the season finale, all because of a fracas over notional times at Rally Chile – the outcome of which might shift the title race on its own.
There are two concurrent realities, only one of which will apply once an appeal against a notional time handed to Yohan Rossel during stage 11 in Chile is resolved. This is how each outcome affects the title race:
Why the uncertainty?
Solberg has completed all seven of his points-scoring events, but his tally could potentially still improve
Yohan Rossel won Rally Chile – but only after a notional time handed him a 40-second break. Championship leader Oliver Solberg had suffered a puncture and had to change a wheel mid-stage, then resumed immediately in front of Rossel.
But the complication was extremely heavy fog – so heavy that the stage was then cancelled for the later Rally2 cars. Solberg resumed only a few seconds ahead of Rossel but by the end of the stage was much further up the road.
FIA road sport director Andrew Wheatley then filed a petition to the Rally Chile stewards asking for the decision to be revisited, citing additional new GPS and onboard evidence that was not made available to stewards at the time of their original decision.
Solberg’s team Toksport had initially had a protest against Rossel’s notional time rejected but with Wheatley’s intervention, it will now be adjudicated for a second time using the additional GPS and onboard evidence. That means Rossel’s time could be adjusted down again – potentially demoting him from first place to as low as fourth, behind Solberg, if his previous time was reinstated. Or it could be adjusted part-way and have him fall to second or third.
That would still change the title race.
If Rossel’s Chile time stands…
This is the simpler outcome. Oliver Solberg leads the way with 123 points but a victory for Yohan Rossel in CER will put him on 126 and send him to the top of the leaderboard – with the caveat that Sami Pajari can still catch him on Rally Japan.
Rossel won last time out in Chile after a notional time was readjusted
If Rossel does win CER, Citroën would finally top the WRC’s second tier for the first time since Mads Østberg’s 2020 title should Pajari then fail to place in the top two in Japan. There’s even a ludicrous scenario where Rossel, having won in CER, then loses the title on countback if Pajari finishes second in Japan, even though Rossel’s dropped score (fifth in Portugal) is better than Pajari’s (retirement in Portugal).
If Rossel and Pajari’s end-of-year points-scoring results do end up identical, the next tiebreak scenario in the regulations is: “According to the greater number of highest places achieved in the final classifications of their respective Championship, taking into consideration only those rallies in which all of the drivers and/or co-drivers concerned have taken part.”
Rossel and Pajari have rallied against each other three times this season: Portugal, Italy and Greece. Pajari won the latter two events and wins the tiebreak.
All the while Solberg could end up winning in CER and be powerless to avoid losing the title anyway: he’s registered for teams’ championship points this week but has already completed his seven allowed rounds for the drivers’ championship.
If Rossel’s Chile time is revised…
Rossel being demoted from victory in Chile, courtesy of a second stage time adjustment, would suddenly alter who’s even in the title race to begin with.
Citroën’s main man only remains in the race because of his Chile win – otherwise he’d have finished too many points short of Solberg’s total to catch him. If that change comes to pass, then team-mate Nikolay Gryazin would be promoted to victory, which in turn would put him back in the title race.
Gryazin could be reinstated into the title race if his team-mate loses his win in Chile
In that scenario Gryazin would need a perfect end to the season, winning both CER and Japan to match Solberg’s points total of 123. He’d beat Solberg on countback with four wins to three and Pajari if the Toyota driver finished third in Japan – but a top two would seal the deal for Pajari.
The above though assumes Rossel’s Chile time revision only demotes him to third. If it drops him to fourth, then Solberg gains three points by moving to third place and Gryazin is once again out of the race no matter what he does.
The lingering deciding factor
Pajari will be on the start line at CER. But like in Chile, he’s in a Rally1-spec Yaris, not his regular WRC2 machine. While his rivals fight among each other, he can enjoy another rally of learning as he builds towards his likely future as a factory driver at the top level.
Pajari is now the only driver fully in control of his destiny in WRC2
He is now the only one who can determine their own fate – although he won’t have that chance until Rally Japan in November. Turn up and win there and whatever happens in CER is irrelevant. For him, anyway. For the rest of us – and especially Citroën pair Rossel and Gryazin – it could make or break the season.
In whichever post-Chile scenario plays out, the benefactor of the decision must win in CER to keep their title hopes alive. Both arrive as favorites to do so and as top seeds – but they’ll still have to best a field including Toksport’s Josh McErlean and four-time German champion Marijan Griebel.
If neither wins, we’ll know for sure it’s Solberg versus Pajari to the finish. If one of them is stood on the top step of the podium come Sunday, we’ll have to wait for a stewards’ decision to know which of them could still become champion.
