What next for Katsuta and Pajari?

As the World Rally Championship heads west across the Atlantic for Rally Chile, Toyota has made the bold decision to replace Takamoto Katsuta with Sami Pajari in Concepción.

Predictably, and understandably, Toyota’s press release majored on the positivity around the expanded opportunity for the 22-year-old. Inevitably, it’s the news that all is not well with the Japanese manufacturer’s Japanese driver which will hog the headlines.

While Katsuta’s inconsistencies have been well documented this year, few saw this decision coming. His latest mistake at last week’s Acropolis Rally marked a turning point for the Toyota Gazoo Racing team and team principal Jari-Matti Latvala picked up the phone to Pajari, who had finished the event in an astonishing fourth overall and top of the WRC2 results.

Did we see this coming?

Which bit? The second shot for Pajari was telegraphed when Latvala told DirtFish he wouldn’t rule out seeing Sami back in a Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 before the end of the year. So, yeah, we saw it coming. Katsuta out, Pajari in… not a bit of it. That was a genuine surprise. Should it have been? Possibly not. This has been a torrid year for the 31-year-old. One Safari podium aside, it’s been a shocker, with Katsuta promising pretty much at the end of every rally to go away, have a think about things and come back stronger.

In Finland, Latvala told him to do as he said, not as the Finn himself had done.

Beginning of the end for Katsuta?

Absolutely not… But possibly, yes. The likeable Japanese’s future employment does, of course, depend entirely on his response to sitting out Rally Chile. If he comes back and throws the Yaris into the trees on the roads between the Austrian, Czech and German borders and then bends more panels at home in Japan, it wouldn’t be out of hand for Toyota to take the matter further.

And if he does that, then it would be hard to sympathise with his plight. There’s no doubt, he’s been given – and is enjoying – a very fair crack of the whip with the Finnish-based team. Toyota has invested millions in him.

Katsuta made his WRC debut eight years ago, but started rallying in 2012. Originally a race driver who made his name in karting and Formula 3, he eventually decided to follow his father Norihiko to the stages. He was selected as one of the original Toyota Gazoo Racing Challenge Program drivers in 2015 and enjoyed a breakthrough WRC2 win in Sweden, 2018.

The even bigger breakthrough came a year later. After a couple of Finnish rounds (one on snow and one on gravel), Taka was handed a WRC debut at the all-asphalt 2019 Rallye Deutschland. He drove sensibly throughout the event, finishing 10th.

He started his first full campaign in 2021 and finished fifth overall in the championship a year later after a stellar season of consistent points finishes. Registered for manufacturer points on the odd event last year, there was the odd blip, but he drove well across the second half of the year and ended with a sensational Rally Japan – which could well have ended in a maiden win had he just kept the car on the road in some of the worst conditions imaginable on the opening morning.

That pace in and around Toyota City was, many predicted, going to be the stimulus for more podiums and a likely first win this season. It hasn’t happened. Yes, he’s shown exceptional speed, but he hasn’t been able to sustain it and put a trouble free 200 miles of competitive motoring down without a mistake. Rear-ending a fairly well-known tree on the outside of a Ruuhimäki corner was a particular frustration in Finland.

In Katsuta’s defence, it’s easy to overlook the pressure he’s under. He’s had marvellous support from Akio Toyoda, but rarely being far from the chairman of the board’s line of sight also brings its own burden. Nobody wants this more Katsuta himself and there’s no doubt that his future remains in his own hands.

End of the beginning for Pajari?

Absolutely, yes.

Pajari’s rise through the ranks has been rapid. Two years ago he was still driving a Ford Fiesta Rally3 on most events. Yes, he’d won the Junior World Rally Championship title, but he wasn’t exactly on the fast track. That track got faster last year, when he moved up to a Toksport Škoda and faster still when he switched to a Printsport Toyota and was recognized as Finland’s new rising star.

The right connections have doubtless worked in his favor, but ultimately none of that mattered come seven o’clock on the first evening of August. Sitting on the startline of the Harju stage, Pajari’s big moment had arrived. Could he cut it?

Secto Rally Finland this year was very definitely divided into Friday morning… and the remainder of the rally. Friday morning was about Laukaa, where he spun and then sent the GR Yaris Rally1 off the road, damaging the rear wing. The rest of the rally was about a Ruuhimäki stage win and a smile that just kept on getting wider and wider, all the way to fourth overall on Sunday afternoon.

But Chile and CER haven’t been offered up on the back of one blinder of a rally, he’s been consistent and demonstrated pace and maturity beyond his years in a Toyota GR Yaris Rally2 car. He’s earned his opportunity.

Is Pajari a genuine threat for the seat?

That kind of depends on the Toyota play next season. The expectation is that Kalle Rovanperä will be back full-time in 2025. What about Sébastien Ogier? How much does he want to do? How safe is Elfyn Evans? And what about Japan’s understandable desire to see a Japanese driver in its car?

Let’s dig into those. Yes, Rovanperä will be back, he’s under contract and he’s grateful to Toyota for giving him some breathing space this year. He’s seat number one. Ogier will likely be on a part program – or he might decide to call it a day. Monte Carlo is the problem for the Gap superstar. His home event holds such appeal, it’s hard to say no to round one. And if you’re in for round one, why not do a few more?

By his own admission, this hasn’t been a good year for Evans. But he’s still showing more than enough speed and bringing enough points with enough experience to keep his place. It’s possible Katsuta and Pajari could share the events Ogier’s not doing, with a couple of five-car entries thrown in here and there?

We can’t underestimate the Japan factor here. Katsuta is so close to winning a WRC round and for Toyoda and Toyota, that would be a huge story and a significant return on that investment. That’s not going to be overlooked.

What comes next?

Pajari needs to drive Chile with his head. We saw last year what a curved ball this event is capable of throwing, so he needs to keep the car on the road and his focus on the finish. If he has one objective, it’s kind of key for him to keep his fellow South American Rally1 first-timer Mārtiņš Sesks behind him. If the pair of them run problem-free for the duration, Pajari’s pace needs to reflect the fact he has a battery and 134 electric horses on tap every other minute.

Should he look to beat Katsuta in Central Europe? No. But he probably should identify the odd stage where he could turn it up and take it to Taka. Much of the Sami speed will be determined by the conditions; if it’s on-off rain and muddy corners galore, wind it back and bring it home. It will take an awful lot of confidence to commit to the aero with the grip changing meter-by-meter beneath you.

And Katsuta? Go home. Switch off the phone (but not until you’ve spoken to DirtFish) and focus on family time. Put all of this out of your mind and try to avoid tuning in to Chile. Naturally, that’s all very much easier said than done. But what Taka needs to remember is his spellbinding speed in Japan last year, the five podiums, the 33 stage wins and two powerstage wins he’s already scored. He has the speed, he has the capability and he still very much has the belief of a team, a manufacturer and a nation to come through this.