It all comes down to this. Will it be Sébastien Ogier or Elfyn Evans? This time next week, we will know who the 2021 World Rally Champion is.
The odds favor Ogier. The seven-time champion heads into this weekend’s Monza Rally with a 17-point advantage over his Toyota team-mate, but with 30 still up for grabs both are still in contention.
Here’s what both Ogier and Evans have to do to win the title this weekend, with thanks to Steve Jones for the calculations:
Ogier (204 pts)
If Ogier beats Evans at Monza then he is world champion as he has the points advantage. But if he is defeated, he must ensure he scores at least 13 points.
Ogier can therefore guarantee the championship by amassing a total of 217 points or more, as Evans’ ceiling is 217 and he would lose any tiebreaker scenario.
These are the results that would make Ogier an eight-time world champion regardless of what Evans does:
| Result | Powerstage | Minimum Total |
| 5th | 2nd or above | 218 |
| 4th | 4th or above | 218 |
| 3rd | Any | 219 |
| 2nd | Any | 222 |
| 1st | Any | 229 |
Evans (187 pts)
Evans is on the back foot and can’t finish any lower than third overall if he is to win the world championship for the first time.
There is no scenario in which Evans can guarantee himself the title; his results are entirely dependent on what Ogier achieves. But as alluded to above, if Evans outscores Ogier by 18 points or more though he will win the title.
These are the results Evans would need to stand any chance of becoming world champion:
| Result | Powerstage | Minimum Total |
| 3rd | 3rd or above | 205 |
| 2nd | Any | 205 |
| 1st | Any | 212 |
Let us know who you reckon will win in the comments below!
