In rallying, nothing is ever truly certain. But the trepidation increases when the World Rally Championship journeys to territory previously untravelled.
Welcome to Rally Islas Canarias – round four of the 2025 season, and the first of three brand-new rallies to the WRC this year.
Unlike future stops in Paraguay and Saudi Arabia though, Islas Canarias is not a totally alien concept to all. Half of the Rally1 entrants (Thierry Neuville, Adrien Fourmaux, Sami Pajari, Grégoire Munster and Josh McErlean) have an advantage having rallied in Gran Canaria before – but none of them since 2021.
So what can we expect from this rally usually found on the European Rally Championship schedule, but now on the WRC tour until at least 2026?
A super close race
Rally Islas Canarias has repeatedly delivered close finishes in the past
Since the Salou-based Rally Spain dropped off the calendar after 2022, the WRC has been lacking a ‘pure’ and high-grip Tarmac rally.
Monte Carlo, Croatia (in ERC for 2025), Central Europe and Japan are all muckier and more technical.
Islas Canarias is technical too, but plenty of its mountain roads are wide, flowing and offer consistent grip. Corners can’t be dirtied with the lack of cutting, and times are therefore as close as you like.
Just last year, the rally was won by as little as 2.8 seconds following almost two hours of competitive driving – while in 2011 1.5s were all that split the two works Škoda Fabia S2000s.
Times are usually insanely close between drivers and cars in the WRC anyway, so on a rally where road evolution is going to be minimal, expect a super close race in 2025.
Changeable weather
Gran Canaria's topography means one stage in a loop can be rainy while the rest are dry, causing tire selection headaches for crews
Music to the ears of us fans; a cause for great concern for the drivers.
Based on an island in the Atlantic Ocean, inclement weather can be a factor – with the island known to have microclimates and vastly ranging conditions from the mountains to the coastline. That puts a premium on tire selection and managing the risks.
At the time of writing, the forecast suggests rain on Wednesday but also crucially Thursday evening, which could make things interesting on Friday morning – the first leg of the rally.
Tire management
However it is to remain dry, tire management will be absolutely key.
On such sweeping corners on a high-grip surface, prolonging tire life will likely be the route to success – a famously strong attribute of Sébastien Ogier who’s starting his second event of the season this weekend.
But the curveball is the Hankook rubber.
While drivers did get a feel for the new-for-2025 compounds in January at the Monte Carlo Rally, understanding is still not uber-high. And tackling the warmer road temperatures of Islas Canarias is a very different challenge to the wintry alpine passes above Monaco.
Given his struggles in Monte Carlo and Sweden, attention will be on Kalle Rovanperä in this regard to see how he copes.
Fervent fans
Spain is a hotbed for spectator interest
One thing the Finn, and indeed the entire pack, will be able to count on though is the support of stage-side spectators.
Rally Spain was always traditionally a hotbed for spectator interest given its good climate and ease of access from most of Europe. Gran Canaria is perhaps not as accessible, but this writer already knows of rally fans (and even drivers) who are planning a trip over for the spectating experience.
And the recent Rally Sierra Morena in the ERC proved how popular rallying is in Spain. As championship manager Iain Campbell remarked: “The Villaviciosa was 27.19km, and there were spectators for 27.19km.”
The atmosphere should be bouncing on the stages, and in Las Palmas, this week.
No obvious favorite
What we really don’t know however is who will emerge victorious. With no previous form book to lean on, things really are wide open for Rally Islas Canarias.
Sure, Ogier is an obvious candidate – not just for the aforementioned ‘tire whisperer’ reasons, but because… well, he’s Sébastien Ogier.
Ogier was victorious in Spain the last time the WRC visited in 2022
But then there’s Elfyn Evans – unquestionably the WRC’s form man who’s been on the podium on each of the last six asphalt rallies, and who benefited from extra running at Sierra Morena.
And of course world champion Neuville is the only one of the expected championship contenders to have previous experience here – competing on the rally twice and podiuming in 2011.
But it’s his Hyundai team-mate, Adrien Fourmaux, who starts the rally as the only Rally1 pilot to have previously won the event.
We’ve also yet to mention the competitiveness of the cars. How strong will Hyundai’s latest Rally1 evolution be on these roads? Will Toyota be the strongest? And what can M-Sport Ford’s hungry youngsters achieve – particularly Munster who starred with his pace at the Monte?
Be careful when making your pre-event predictions this week, because without any tangible evidence to base theories on, Rally Islas Canarias really could be anyone’s.
