In a story published by DirtFish earlier today, we revealed that Toyota team principal Jari-Matti Latvala expects arch-rivals Hyundai to have the upper hand in this year’s World Rally Championship battle.
Latvala’s surprising admission is, of course, based on the fact that the Japanese squad have just one driver who is likely to fight for this year’s drivers title – Elfyn Evans – while Hyundai’s line-up consists of two bona fide contenders in the shape of 2019 world champion Ott Tänak and five-time WRC runner-up Thierry Neuville.
Certainly on paper, Hyundai’s squad looks irresistible, with the team’s third car – shared by Rally1-returnee Andreas Mikkelsen, Esapekka Lappi and Dani Sordo – focused fully on supporting Hyundai’s leading duo.
Toyota, meanwhile, has Takamoto Katsuta, who is yet to prove himself as a consistent podium finisher, in its second full-time seat. World champions Kalle Rovanperä and Sébastien Ogier share the third car, and may take points away from lead driver Evans in their pursuit of individual rally victories.
But the WRC isn’t won on paper, and there are numerous sub plots to this tale that make this year’s battle between these fierce rivals all the more mouth-watering.
So who will come out on top? DirtFish’s Alasdair Lindsay and James Bowen take up the debate:
Hyundai development will bear fruit
Toyota rocks up to Monte Carlo with the advantage, yes. It will almost certainly lead the championship after the first round of the season.
It begins the year with – short of a technical miracle by Hyundai in the condensed off-season – the best car in the Yaris, along with a world champion in their line-up in Ogier.
But there are 11 months and 13 events in this season. FX Demaison, the man responsible for the most dominant car in rally history, the Volkswagen Polo R WRC, is entering his third decade as a rally engineer at the top level. And he’s now had half a year at the helm of the technical department. Enough time to start making a difference.
It’s easy to be focused on drivers but in the technical department, Demaison versus Fowler is a battle of the titans.
In terms of structure, there has been streamlining at Hyundai. Cyril Abiteboul has the master keys to Alzenau, having been promoted to president last month.
Sean Kim was undoubtedly qualified; his stint with WRC Prototype Vehicle Development at Hyundai before its in-house rally program hit the stages would have nicely complimented his years of experience in road car vehicle architecture. To suggest condensing the management structure is beneficial is no slight against Mr Kim.
But in the history of motorsport, corporate oversight usually does little aside from get in the way. Cesare Fiorio was not only the team manager at Lancia but, during its Group B and Group A heyday, also head of sporting activities at Fiat, the brand’s parent company.
Looking at Formula 1, there are plenty of examples of how not letting the motorsport specialists get on with it can go wrong.
Ford stands out: Stewart Grand Prix was built from zero to a race-winning outfit, then the reins were handed over to the manufacturer, who chose to micro-manage the team to disaster: “It’s never easy but when a large conglomerate like Ford gets involved, it simply slows everything down,” Gary Anderson pointed out to The Race.
It’s worth remembering that Hyundai starting the Rally1 era on the back foot is ultimately the car company’s fault: it simply took too long to sign off car development getting under way in Germany, creating an almighty rush to be ready for Monte in 2022.
M-Sport, by comparison, had started over a year earlier, with Malcolm Wilson free to fire the starting gun.
Abiteboul has the agility to make sweeping, potentially season-defining decisions, on his own, without needing to ask a superior at Alzenau for permission. That could come in handy as Hyundai pushes to close the gap to its rivals.
And then, lastly, the bit you know. The drivers. Evans is one of the best in the world. But as Latvala points out, it’s one versus two. It’s all on one driver to get the job done. Hyundai has double the chances to take the drivers’ crown.
Neuville and Tänak may well take points off one another – but Toyota doesn’t do team orders. Latvala has said time and time again he hates deploying them.
Is it a given that Ogier and Rovanperä will simply move aside for Evans? It’s a scenario that will surely come up, given the two champions will likely end up with better Friday road position at various points this year.
So, as you read this today, no, Hyundai doesn’t have the advantage. But give it six months. Remember where it started this rules cycle. Weaknesses have been addressed.
Look at how the gap has closed.
It will be close. At long last, Hyundai finally has a slightly stronger hand. But at a high-stakes table like the WRC, sometimes it’s craftiness and luck that wins the day, not the cards you started with.
Alasdair Lindsay
Toyota team spirit will prevail
Although on the surface Latvala’s comments appear to be a rather damning appraisal of Toyota’s title hopes, I believe he’s just doing what any good manager would do: seeking to take the pressure off his team to enable them to perform at their best.
That word – team – is going to be critical this year. Both squads have enough speed in their Rally1 cars to win the championship. Both have drivers capable of doing so.
But no driver is going to have undisputed number one status in their respective teams – they’ll each have to fight off their own team-mates as well as their rivals outside of the team.
With so much set to be so close in 2024, it’s in the fine details and marginal gains where I believe this year’s battle will be won. And no team is more experienced in finding those little advantages than Toyota.
Winning as much as it has in recent years hasn’t happened by accident. The Toyota team is such a well-oiled machine, with a championship winning mentality throughout every department. Yes it has made mistakes over the years – last season’s tire dramas on Rally Chile are a clear example of that – but mistakes are how you learn and improve.
Toyota has been going through that process for years, all while maintaining a consistent line-up of staff and drivers. The same can’t be said for Hyundai which, despite making improvements to its car and strengthening its personnel in key areas, isn’t yet as slick an operation as its Japanese rivals.
But perhaps even more importantly, it’s the human factor that sets Toyota apart for me. Under Latvala’s leadership, and in the true Toyota fashion, the team exudes a spirit of confidence and togetherness, the likes of which we have rarely seen in the WRC.
Latvala cares deeply about his people, you can see it in his eyes and hear it in his voice, and that seems to pay particular dividends with his drivers, who have rewarded their team boss’s faith with victories more often than not.
Hyundai has the potential for volatility this year. With Tänak returning to the team he lost faith in just over a year ago, and Thierry Neuville now forced to share number-one driver status, team principal Cyril Abiteboul has a tough task ahead to keep everyone happy.
The Frenchman, who admits he is still learning the WRC, also isn’t shy about criticizing his drivers in public, which could create a bit of needle within the team if the 2024 campaign doesn’t quite go to plan.
In 2024, the pressure on both Toyota and Hyundai will be immense. There will be moments where leadership and team spirit will make the difference in winning tight battles and bouncing back from defeats. That’s why Toyota will maintain its edge in the WRC this year.
James Bowen
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