World Rally Championship points leader Elfyn Evans’ hopes of landing a maiden title were dealt a major blow on Saturday when he retired on the second pass of the Monza Rally’s Gerosa stage.
With Toyota team-mate Sébastien Ogier on course to win the rally, any chances of an Evans title hang by a thread – but the fight is not quite over yet.
For one, there are three stages to negotiate on Sunday and, though all will take place in the confines of the Monza circuit, Ogier acknowledges he still has a “responsibility” to keep his Yaris on the road in order to secure the drivers’ title (and boost Toyota’s hopes of claiming the manufacturers’ crown).
Assuming the six-time champion keeps up his end of the bargain, Evans would then require outside assistance to have a hope of lifting the crown.
This would require one of the three cars directly behind Ogier in the classification overhauling his Yaris WRC to win the rally – with the Hyundais of Dani Sordo and Ott Tänak the best-placed to do so at 17.8 seconds and 22.1s back respectively.
Were that to happen, Evans would still be required to win the powerstage and claim the five bonus points that come with it, and hope that Ogier is no higher than fourth, or finish the final test in second without Ogier scoring a bonus for finishing in the top five.
DirtFish has done the math to show the diminishingly slim scenarios that would return an Evans title win – check them out below.