Investigating the importance of a good Monte

The Monte Carlo Rally could be held at any time, and be part of any championship, and it would be a rally that every single rally driver wants to win more than most others.

The challenge, the prestige and unique nature of it make it a must on anybody’s CV.

As the World Rally Championship’s season opener, victory on the Monte can be seen as not just a great coup but also something of a necessity as it kicks a driver’s campaign off in perfect fashion both in terms of points on the board and a statement sent to the rest.

But the key to a strong WRC season isn’t necessarily victory on the Monte, but rather a solid haul of points that a driver can build on throughout the rest of the season.

Fail to do that, and claiming the ultimate goal come season end can prove very difficult indeed for any driver, no matter their individual quality.

This weekend’s Monte will kickstart the 51st season in world championship history, and in that time very few winners of the opening round have actually gone on to claim that year’s title.

Of the 44 seasons where a drivers’ title has been up for grabs, only 17 times (38.6%) has the world champion also won the season opener – and two of those (Tommi Mäkinen, Sweden 1996 and Sébastien Loeb, Ireland 2009) weren’t on the Monte.

To stress the point further, 11 of those 15 Monte wins by world champions were by those two era-defining blokes called Sébastien. Aside from Loeb and Ogier, only Walter Röhrl (in 1980 and ’82), Miki Biasion (1999) and Mäkinen (1999) won their world title via a Monte Carlo victory.

So a win on the Monte is far from a world championship guarantee. And conversely, not leaving Monaco as the championship leader is hardly a barrier to success. It certainly didn’t ever stop Björn Waldegård, Ari Vatanen, Hannu Mikkola, Stig Blomqvist, Timo Salonen, Juha Kankkunen, Carlos Sainz, Didier Auriol, Colin McRae, Marcus Grönholm, Ott Tänak or Kalle Rovanperä did it.

In fact Röhrl is the only WRC champion to not win the world championship without winning the Monte Carlo Rally.

But just how poor a Monte result does history suggest a driver can get away with, and still win the world championship?

The table above shows the results of each season’s world champion when they didn’t win the opening round.

Interestingly, it shows that only 11 of the 25 drivers (44%) netted a podium finish if they didn’t win, meaning that in total just 59% of world champions have stood on the Monte Carlo Rally podium en route to their title – a figure that’s much lower than you might expect.

But it must also be pointed out that since the current points system was introduced in 2010 (25 points awarded for a win and points down to 10th overall), the lowest the world champion has finished was Kalle Rovanperä last year when he placed fourth. And that fourth was topped up with a full five bonus points from the powerstage that actually elevated him to third in the championship after round one.

Perhaps it’s mentality as much as anything else, but a poor or zero score on round one when as many as 30 points can be secured immediately places a driver on the back foot.

Just ask Ott Tänak, who hasn’t scored a single point from Monte Carlo in any of the past three seasons.

Either way, winning or scoring a podium is hardly a bad way to start the season. But it’s not the only way.

To follow all the twists and turns of this year’s Monte Carlo Rally as it happens, make sure you check out DirtFish Live Center. Coverage starts from 7pm CET on Thursday.