It’s now or never for a ninth Ogier title

It was the question pondered by many but left unspoken. Sébastien Ogier sure is around an awful lot for a supposedly semi-retired driver – is he really a part-time driver at all, or has he subtly moved back into a near full-time role?

Despite appearances, he has not. Finland was an optional ‘add-on’ to his program – if Ogier felt the itch to prove himself on the world’s greatest fast-gravel rally, he could stick his hand up and Toyota would flag a GR Yaris Rally1 down for him. Which he now has.

But the prospect is enticing – both for Toyota and for us, the viewers. We thought we’d be getting a three-way title fight between the Hyundais of Thierry Neuville and Ott Tänak, with Elfyn Evans leading the line for Toyota.

But the line-leading has been executed emphatically by part-timer Ogier instead. Had it not been for the very unfortunate recce accident in Poland, he’d have clocked up six starts from eight rallies – five of which were rallies of his choosing and only one as a favor to Toyota at their request (Latvia). And in terms of output, no one in the World Rally Championship can get anywhere near him.

Ogier has averaged 23.4 points per rally. Neuville’s rate of return has been 18.1 points and when it comes to his Toyota team-mates, the gap becomes a gulf: Rovanperä sits on 17.2, Evans hits a mark of 16.5 and Katsuta, who was originally set to be a points-scoring car for almost every event this season, has mustered a paltry 8.1.

It’s no surprise that Jari-Matti Latvala, Toyota’s team principal, is weighing up a request that would change the complexion of both title races. For Toyota, it’s about ensuring Hyundai doesn’t steal the manufacturers’ title away. But for us, the viewing audience, it’s hard not to look at that and think: is title number nine on the horizon?

Last year, my colleague David Evans posed that question to Ogier in a wet and muddy Sardinia. He was emphatically not having it. The mere suggestion infuriated him, even.

A year on and the tone had shifted. He was laughing and joking about the possibility. Will I or won’t I? I’ll keep it a secret to keep Hyundai on their toes. Naturally, he downplayed the idea that a hypothetical full-time return for the rest of 2024 would somehow lead to a title bid – he was surely too far off.

From a pure numbers standpoint he’s right – but only just. Rallying is not straightforward and average points per rally before Finland is no guarantee for what may follow. But it’s what we have to work with for now – and it makes for interesting reading.

Ogier is currently 28 points behind Neuville in the title race. If the eight-time world champion keeps outscoring Neuville at the same rate he has so far this year, that gap would be reduced to 1.5 points – close, but no ninth title.

But this is rallying. Weirder things have happened. And there is no driver on the face of this earth currently more capable or better placed to turn such a long shot into reality as Ogier. He has been the driver of the season until now, period.

It’s a long shot. But, sorry Séb, we’re not buying that it’s not possible. You absolutely can do this. It requires the cards falling in your favor, yes. It is no longer solely in your control. But it’s hard to imagine you not holding up your end of the bargain.

There’s another aspect to consider, too: if number nine is ever going to come, it has to come now.

Séb agreeing to step in for Latvia was through a number of circumstances. One, the school holidays hadn’t kicked in yet – so he wasn’t missing vacation time with his son. Two, and more importantly from a competition perspective, is it was a brand new rally in the WRC; a blank slate for pretty much everyone bar Mārtiņš Sesks.

But the reason he rocked up to Latvia is also the reason why if number nine happens, it’s got to be this year. The circumstances have aligned. They probably won’t again.

“For me, that’s the essence of rallying,” Ogier explained to DirtFish. “That’s how it should be when you go to a new stage, how I learned rallying in the past. You come here without videos.

“I know these days it’s a different story. I don’t do it, but I know that the trend now is to spend already days before the event watching videos from the past and try to learn from it. I don’t really enjoy that. I haven’t done that in my career and I don’t know if it’s explained why I’m usually good to take new pace notes, but we’ll have to prove that again this weekend with this high-speed profile.”

Prove it they did. He wasn’t able to match Rovanperä’s pace but, frankly, he didn’t care. This was always going to be Kalle’s rally – finishing second place overall and putting in a big shift on Sunday to rake in points was job done.

The difference between Poland and Latvia for Rovanperä was stark. Rushed, lacking both preparation and adequate sleep, the reigning world champion admitted to being scared of putting in the sort of pace needed to compete for victory in Mikołajki – specifically because he hadn’t watched much video beforehand to learn the stages.

The difference in times between first and second passes highlighted how much of a difference simply seeing the roads at speed with his own eyeballs – digitally or in person – was making.

When it comes to the WRC, Ogier has been there, done that and got a wardrobe full of T-shirts. To go after number nine in future seasons, should the thought tempt him, would mean going into rallies less prepared than Rovanperä. And who can blame him?

Sitting in front of a screen for hours on end staring at the same roads is no fun. There is nothing left for him to prove. What would be the point? He could be sitting back relaxing, or spending some extra time watching his kids grow up, instead. That’s more fun than a six-hour video onboard session.

Maybe Latvala will ask the question. Perhaps Ogier might even say yes – out of respect to his team and their need to secure a championship, rather than his own objectives. If it does happen, it probably won’t be about chasing drivers’ title number nine.

But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a chase at all. And if the chase is on, this is the year it’ll need to be successful. Based on their age difference, Rovanperä has an extra 147,192 hours spare to burn watching onboards.